The Derrick Rose Dilemma

Lately there’s been a lot of talk about Derrick Rose and his current injury situation, combined with the Chicago Bulls run through the playoffs this year.  I have the advantage of being able to listen to a lot of sports talk radio – both national and local – while I’m at work, so I’ve heard all the angles from a variety of people.  There are a few key questions that come into play with regards to this topic; First, Does a player owe anything to his organization?  His teammates?  The fans?  Does an organization have the right to force a player to play, and if so, at what point should this happen?  While there are differing opinions on the topic, one thing is for sure – there are two very clear opposing sides to this debate, and there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of middle ground.  Before I dive into the debate, let me make clear that I have absolutely no bias here.  I have always been a Lakers fan, and since my team finally put an end to their miserable season I have no allegiance to the teams or players still in the playoffs.

Here’s a little background for those of you that have not been monitoring the situation.  During last year’s playoffs against the Philadelphia 76’ers Rose tore the ACL in his left knee.  On May 12 of last year he underwent successful surgery to repair the tear, and the prognosis was an 8-12 month recovery.  For those of you that are mathematically challenged, we are 5 days away from the one year anniversary of the procedure as I am typing this.  In that time the Bulls managed to win 45 games, secure the 5th seed in the playoffs, win the best-of-seven series against the Brooklyn Nets to advance to the semi-finals, and take the first game in the series against the championship-favorite Miami Heat – all without Derrick Rose playing a single minute in the 2012-2013 season.

Here’s where things get a little foggy.  About two months ago the Chicago Bulls announced that Rose had been medically cleared by team doctors to resume full basketball activity.  In other words his knee was 100% healed, and he could resume his normal workload without fear of re-injury.  That was two months ago.  Rose still has not played a single minute.  I’ve heard multiple reports from people that have seen him practice which state he has full movement, and has been practicing to the same level of every other player on the court.  Rose still has not played a single minute.  Derrick stated he would resume playing in games when he was able to dunk off his left foot…this is a feat I personally didn’t see as being necessary, but if that’s the goal he set for himself, so be it.  Recent reports have stated he is now dunking off his left foot in practice.  Rose still has not played a single minute.  Derrick has since stated that the remainder of his recovery must take place between the ears.  He admits his knee is healed, but he is not mentally ready to play in games.

A torn ACL is one of the worst injuries an athlete can endure.  The recovery is long and painful, and many players are never the same once completely healed.  From what I’ve gathered most analysts and retired athletes sympathize with Rose, while most of the criticism for the way he is handling the situation is coming from the fans.  The most common argument I’ve heard in defense of Rose is “nobody knows his body better than him,” and “only Derrick knows when his body is ready.”  His teammate, Joakim Noah, went on a mini-rampage to reporters last night, telling Rose’s critics to “shut up”, because nobody knows what he is feeling.  That would be great, except for the fact that Rose’s body is healthy – Derrick himself has stated that much.  Many of Rose’s critics have pointed to Iman Shumpert returning from the same injury in much shorter time, and Nate Robinson throwing up at courtside in the middle of the game, and wonder why Rose can’t “man up” and play through his injury like those two.  Those arguments simply aren’t fair.  Nobody can tell how an athlete feels, and everybody has a different pain tolerance.

While I don’t think its appropriate to compare injuries among athletes, I do have a problem with Rose essentially blowing off his team due to his weak mental fortitude.  Derrick’s bother, Reggie, is one of the most influential people in his life, and it was reported earlier in the season that he advised Derrick not to rush his recovery, because this year’s Bulls simply weren’t good enough to compete for a championship.  Um, excuse me?  Refer to Paragraph #2 please.  This is an excellent example of athletes taking bad advice from their non-athlete inner-circles (LeBron also learned this the hard way a few years ago).  While it’s not advisable to rush the recovery from any injury, it certainly isn’t advisable to slow your recovery down and write off an entire season.  As we all know, anything can happen in sports over the course of a year – it’s why we love to watch.  To his credit he has not ruled out a return before their season is over, but most people with close knowledge of the team and this situation do not expect him to return before their season concludes.

In 2011 Rose signed a contract extension that pays him around $19 million per year for 5 years.  He made $19 million this year, and didn’t play a single minute.  If he was legitimately injured, I would have absolutely no problem with this.  Injuries happen in all sports, it’s just part of the risk a team assumes when teams and players sign contracts.  When a player is injured he does not owe the team or the fans anything except their best effort to recover and get back out on the court/field.  Rose, however, does not technically have an injury anymore – by his own admission.  He isn’t playing because his head isn’t right.  My guess is he fears re-injuring it, and as such he is compensating and not playing to the level he is perfectly capable of playing right now.  Derrick, get out there and play.  Testing the waters in game situations is the best way to get past the mental block.  Even if he just went out for 5 minutes one night, then 7 minutes the next night, etc. it would be better than not even giving it a shot at all.  Even when he’s 100% confident in practice and starts playing again, it will still be in the back of his mind as soon as the ball is thrown up for tip-off.  The only way to come back is to gradually work back into it.

Having sat out for an entire season, I wouldn’t expect Rose to be nearly as effective as he has been in the past, but a little Derrick Rose is better than no Derrick Rose.  The team gave him almost twenty million dollars this year, he owes it to the team and the fans to at least give it a try since there is nothing medically wrong with him.  I am very interested to see if he returns in the unlikely event the Bulls get past the Heat and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.  If he slowed his recovery on his brother’s premise that they “aren’t good enough to compete for a championship”, I’m intrigued to see how he handles things when the championship is clearly within reach.  While everyone wants to see him return, I wonder if there would be a faction of people that will look at him as someone that laid back, then changed stride to be part of the glory that comes with being a champion.  Time will tell.

The Atlanta Braves in 2013

Each of the past two seasons – along with many other seasons in Atlanta – have ended in post-season-related disappointment.  In 2011 they failed to make the playoffs on the last day of the regular season, and last year they lost the inaugural play-in Wild Card game against the Cardinals.  This is a team that has had only two losing seasons in the last 21 years, but has experienced post-season disappointment in all but one season.  Will 2013 be the year they turn that luck around, and possibly contend for the elusive World Series title?  Let’s break down the team by position

Outfield

This was the talk of the off-season.  The Braves signed the high-priced free agent B.J. Upton, and traded with the Diamondbacks for his little brother, Justin.  With Jason Heyward, this gives the Braves one of the youngest and most dynamic outfields in all of baseball.  All three have plus-speed and plus-power, and they are all top-tier defenders.  Both Heyward and Justin can hit in the high-200’s, but all three strike out way too much.  For Heyward this is a little surprising, because his plate discipline was one of his strengths coming out of the minors, as described by scouts.  After a successful rookie campaign he had a disastrous 2011, due to his inability to make adjustments to pitchers that were adjusting to him.  He responded in 2012 with another successful year, showing his rookie season was not a fluke and that he possesses the ability to make changes.  Last year he doubled his stolen base total from 2010 and believe me, that was no fluke – this guy has wheels.  As he grows and matures as a player, you will see more of this from him.  I predict a few more this year, somewhere between 25-30 as long as he stays healthy.  If the three of these guys can reel in their strikeout totals just a little bit, it will make all the difference.  Out of the three, Heyward seems most likely to be able to do so.  But all three contribute in so many other ways that the team will succeed despite the K’s.

Infield

The team’s weakest position is going to be third base.  With the departure of Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson will platoon the position.  Johnson will get the start against right-handers, Francisco against left-handers (Johnson’s career splits are backwards and far apart).  Both are having good Springs, and Francisco performed admirably in 2012, hitting 9 homers off the bench.  This time last year Tyler Pastornicky was the opening day starting shortstop as Simmons was deemed not yet ready for the Majors.  As it turned out, it ended up being the other way around.  By the end of May Pastornicky was hitting .248, sent back to AAA Gwinnett, and replaced by this year’s opening day starter, Andrelton Simmons.  By the end of the first week in July when he broke his finger he was hitting .296 with 13 runs scored while hitting at the bottom of the lineup.  When he returned to action two months later he picked up right where he left off, and finished the season with a .289 batting average.  This year he will be the leadoff man, where the team will be able to utilize his speed more.  He only stole one base last year, but as he grows more confident in the art, he will have more opportunities – after all, he did steal 26 bases in 2011 at the minor league level.  If he can maintain his good on-base percentage, the five big bats after him have the ability to drive him home.  For the first time in five years Dan Uggla failed to hit at least 30 home runs, and he saw his slugging percentage drop off the face of the planet.  His batting average was also about 30-35 points off what it was during his more productive years in Florida (Miami), and he saw an increase in strikeouts.  He did, however, have a career-high in walks, so he is learning to be more patient.  While I don’t see much of an increase in batting average, I do believe he will find his power again.  With a little pressure taken off with the acquisitions of the Upton brothers, I think his home run total will be back up around 30 this year.  Lastly, there’s Freddie Freeman at first base.  Last year his batting average dropped, but that should bounce back this year as he has always hit in the high-200’s.  He’s an excellent gap hitter, and was 7th in doubles in the National League among first basemen.  I believe he will hit in the neighborhood of .290 with 25 homers and 100 RBI while hitting in the middle of the lineup.

Catcher

It is my belief that this will be Brian McCann’s last year in an Atlanta uniform.  The Braves have two prospects at the position waiting, one of which -Evan Gattis – will be on this year’s opening day roster.  Christian Bethancourt is thought to have more upside, but he still needs at least another year in the minors (this will be his first season at the AAA level).  Gattis surprised many with his outstanding Spring performance, hitting .368 with six homers.  With McCann starting the season on the DL, Gattis will back up new acquisition Gerald Laird.  Laird doesn’t possess the power that McCann and Gattis do, but his veteran presence will help this young pitching staff in Brian’s absence, as well as mentor Gattis along the way.  McCann is scheduled to return to Atlanta at the beginning of May, at which point Gattis will likely be sent down to triple-A.  McCann’s health has been a constant concern over the last two years, and that – along with his age at a grueling position – is why the Braves will not pay him the money he will command in free agency at the end of the season.  Despite his declining batting average he still hits home runs in the mid-20’s, but taking into consideration he will miss a month while recovering from shoulder surgery and possibly more injuries during the season, I would peg him for around 15 dingers.  In 2014 he will be a DH and backup catcher for an American League team.

Pitching

This off-season the Braves shed the likes of two injury-prone, declining pitchers – Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens.  Normally one would think if a team got rid of it’s #2 and #3 pitchers they would be in bad shape, but this is a classic case of addition by subtraction.  Jurrjens hadn’t had  a healthy season since 2009, Hanson since his sophomore season in 2010.  When both pitchers were able to fulfill their duties in 2012, they were very ineffective.  This year the rotation features a lot of young – but proven – talent anchored by veteran Tim Hudson.  Hudson will be turning 38 this summer and is entering his 14th major league season, yet has shown no signs of slowing down.  He does not rely on power pitching, instead pitching to contact, so it is feasible he can continue doing this for another year or two.  He hasn’t finished a season with an ERA above 4 in six consecutive seasons, and he has been as reliable as one can be since undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Kris Medlen will look to build on his uber-successful 2012, which saw him post a 10-1 record with a 1.57 ERA.  These numbers will not be replicated, but the kid has serious talent.  He will be a 17-game winner with an ERA around 3.50.  Mike Minor has a much lower ceiling than Medlen, but he is still dependable.  In his second full season as a starter he will win around 12 games with an ERA in the mid-4’s.  Paul Maholm returns for his first full season after being traded at the deadline from the Cubs.  He’s another guy that has rarely been injured in his career, and has remained fairly consistent with his output from year to year.  Julio Teheran is my guy to watch this year.  Two years ago he was the #1 prospect in the organization, but he tweaked his delivery last year and relied much too heavily on his fastball, and the results were not good.  At the end of last season he went back to his old delivery and perfected his two-seamer and slider, and the numbers he has put up since are on-par with what all the hype around him was saying two years ago.  If his winter league and spring training starts translate into the regular season, this is a potential Rookie Of The Year candidate.  It’s hard to predict a rookie’s numbers, but I’d say something in the neighborbood of a mid-3 ERA, 15 wins, and 180 strikeouts is attainable for Teheran.  The name left off this list is Brandon Beachy, who will return from Tommy John surgery shortly after the All-Star break.  What he will bring to the table after having such a surgery is unknowable.  The rotation becomes crowded with his return, and if Teheran produces as I think he will, I’m actually pretty curious how Fredi Gonzalez handles this.  If it were me I would keep Beachy in the bullpen for the rest of the season, allowing him to work back into action slowly, then release Maholm in the off-season and have Beachy start 2014 in the rotation.  Time will tell.

Bullpen

The bullpen has already received bad news for the 2013 season.  Johnny Venters is scheduled to meet with Dr. Andrews on Wednesday, which likely means only one thing – an announcement of Tommy John surgery will soon follow.  Venters has pitched more innings in the last three years than any other reliever in baseball, and now the Braves are paying the price.  Luckily this was a position of strength for the team, and the Braves still have lefty specialist Eric O’Flaherty to take his place.  Furthermore, the acquisition of Jordan Walden in the off-season makes the potential loss of Venters a little easier to take.  Craig Kimbrel will return as the closer, and attempt the impossible task of matching his historic season from a year ago, in which he saved 42 games with a 1.01 ERA and and 116 strikeouts in just 62.2 innings of work.  The guy put up as many strikeouts as some starters throughout the course of the season.  Kimbrel obviously won’t match that ERA, but the strikeout and saves totals are not out of the question.  I’ll say the numbers come down a little bit, but he’ll still be around 100 K’s and an ERA in the mid-2’s.

The Braves biggest weakness is their depth.  If anybody gets hurt at any position other than third, they may be in trouble.  Eric Hinske and Martin Prado are no longer on the roster, so the bench and utility talent is a little thin.  Reed Johnson, Paul Janish, Ramiro Pena, and Jordan Schafer are their best bench options, so things could get sketchy if any significant injuries are sustained.  But these things can not be predicted, so assuming good health this team will finish second in the division, win the Wild Card game against the Giants, and advance to the NLCS against the Nationals.  Now let’s get the season started!

Opening Day Confessions

I make it no mystery- I am a Mets fan.  I do not want an award and I do not want some sly comment about “My Entire Team Suck” (METS acronym). I have heard it all before and it is old.  I do not go out of my way to remind people how their teams are not good or how “this player is a clown” or “that player is so over rated.”  What is the point?  The only thing I care about is winning.  Out of 162 games, if your team can win 90-95 of them, you have a high percentage chance of making the playoffs and competing for a World Series ring.  That is all that matters to fans.  We love signing the free agents but only to provide us with more hope and commitment towards the goal- a World Series ring.  We love trades- and why?- to provide us with more hope and commitment towards the goal- a World Series ring.  So when I look at the 2011 Mets….and the 2012 Mets….and the 2013 Mets, I see one thing- a big market ball club who is not providing its fans with more hope and commitment towards the goal- a World Series ring- any time in the near future.  That is what bothers me as a fan and I must confess, I am getting tired of it.

I understand the importance on long-term goals and fan bases are impatient groups of people.  It is a fact.  We do not look at this completely detached and as a business challenge but an emotional experience.  We want to feel good in the experience.  While trades of promising prospects make us feel good about a better tomorrow, what about today?  Why does our starting OF consist of a lot of players who would not be starters on most teams in Major League Baseball? Why could the Mets not offer another SP a minor league contract or two to come to spring training for insurance?  If there is not money problems within the ownership group, why is there no investment into the club?  These are all fair questions to ask.

Look- I know the 2013 Mets could not and will not compete with the top-tier NL team.  I know they “tried” to obtain Justin Upton and/or Michael Bourn in the offseason and it did not work out. I am not saying the 2014 and 2015 is not a fair assessment to add outside talent to the club- because it is.  I guess it just gets really irritated to sit and think on Opening Day (and this is the first time I have felt this way ever) that this season is all about evaluating young talent and making games interesting.  That is not why fans watch the game.  Any one who tells you it is about having fun while watching your team forgot to acknowledge the object of the game- to win.  We do not pay $50-$500 a ticket to watch a team have fun.  We watch them in hopes they win and we can celebrate that accomplishment.

I take a deep breath now and look at the 2013 Mets position by position:

C- John Buck: He is an experienced catcher who knows how to handle a pitching staff.  If he can hold a .250 average and provide some pop, he will have value as a starter and as a bench veteran when Travis D’Arnaud comes to the majors.  My hope is that Buck holds D’Arnaud in the minors until at least mid-season with his 2013 performance.

1st- Ike Davis: Quietly, he has flown under the radar with this sub-par first half in 2012.  With 23 HRs in the second half of the year, Ike Davis looks to regain a bit of his overall average and superior defensive skills.  I feel Ike Davis has the ability to hit .280 with 26 HRs and 100 RBIs this year.

2nd- Daniel Murphy:  As Murph is a warrior and has worked hard to become a decent fielding second baseman, Daniel Murphy must stay healthy and hit with more power this year.  I feel Murphy can be a 15-20 HR guy but it will come at a cost to his average (.290 hitter down to maybe .270).  He does provide a little fire and motivation to the team.  His spunk will be needed to drive the young core of the Mets on a daily basis.

SS- Ruben Tejada:  I think Tejada is a great defensive player who is a slap hitter.  He is a nice contributor off the bench and when you need a spot starter.  I just do not think that the Mets can win with Tejada at SS when the team lacks offense in so many other positions.  On a winning team, Daniel Murphy (without power) and Ruben Tedaja (without power) cannot play every day unless Wright and Davis combine for 55 HRs and the Mets OF hits for 75-80 HRs.  As Jordanny Valdespin has been in discussion for an opportunity while Tejada hit terribly this spring, I feel the season will bring clarity to this position for if the long term answer is inside or outside the organization.

3rd- David Wright:  He is the captain and the most highly recognized talent on the team.  He provides strong defense, leadership and a face to the organization.  He is a strong gaps hitter who could serve well to have a few extra big bats around him so he can play his game– doubles, RBIs, stolen bases and 20-25 HRs a year.  David Wright is not a big HR hitter and when people understand this and provide the lineup with that type of player, David Wright can return to his 2006-2007 form.

LF- Lucas Duda:  I mentioned in Wright’s comment above about that power bat.  This year Lucas Duda needs to step forward and be that power bat.  Duda has ability to hit .280 with 28-30 HRs and 90 RBIs if he can get past his injuries and his confidence issues.  Teammates have described his work ethic as unmatched and it is my only hope he can show that that this work ethic translates into success on the field and in the stats column.

CF- Colin Cowgill/Kirk Nieuwenhuis: This season will show what these two guys can do.  They have an opportunity to shine and earn themselves a spot in this starting lineup for years to come- if they can play solid defense, hit for a decent average and provide the OBP that is needed for a top of the lineup guy.  If they do not produce, watch for Matt den Dekker this July-August to make an appearance in Citi Field to take the job on a long-term basis.

RF- Marlon Byrd is on the Mets roster as a low risk/decent reward player.  He was given a second chance due to his belief in his ability to compete.  Byrd has hit over .300 this spring and looks to provide a bit of leadership to the young talent on the Mets squad.  As a former highly-touted prospect, Byrd knows of the struggles that young players must endure and how to overcome them.  His signing has value beyond his play.  If he can provide respectable offensive and defensive numbers, he will be an integral part of helping the Mets grow this season.

SP:  With Johan Santana out of the season, the strength that was the New York Mets pitching staff is no longer.  Niese and Harvey will be primed to step forward a top end pitching talent while Dillon Gee needs to show he is okay from his surgery last year.  Shaun Marcum is a player where you take what you can get from him as he is a professional.  Zack Wheeler will be with the club by July as he will prove he is ready to compete.

Relief: There is a lot of options here but there is a lot of  players who need to shut up and produce.  Bobby Parnell needs to bring his A game and close games out.  This will provide structure to a bullpen where is 2012, its lack of consistency cost this club a chance at a .500 record. Brandon Lyon and LaTroy Hawkins should provide veteran leadership by example to the pitching staff.

At the end of the day, 2014 and the future success of the Mets will come from this year.  Do the Mets have 3 starters on this years Opening Day 25 man roster that are a part of the fabric for success?  If so, you can add Wheeler to the mix and only need one higher level free agent starter in 2014 to bring one very strong rotation to rival their inner-division competitors.  Will Davis and Duda put together years that will allow them to be long term answers as starters with the Mets?  Is anyone else in the OF going to stake their claim to a starting job for the entire season?  Is Travis D’Arnaud ready to be the primary catcher for this club?  Does the bullpen stink?   If more of these answers become positive than negative, the Mets will spend in 2014.  If there is no resolution to these answers by season’s end, my fear is that the Mets will not move forward with adding prized talent and will replace the failed youth with other inexpensive options that will bring stability to a unstable franchise.

So from the fans of the Flushing Faithful to our ball club:  Inspire us towards something great.

In this world, with all the negativity and challenges it provides, we could all use something to be inspired about.

NL East

The NL East is probably the division that my co-blogger and I can speak strongest towards. Being devout fans, for better or for worse, we know our enemies as well as our own teams. The division used to hold a simple formula for most of my childhood: All roads go through Atlanta. Then the Mets made a hiccup and thwarted the Braves’ dominance before the Phillies began their run. Then came Washington. Now Washington, Atlanta and Philadelphia will leave the Mets and Marlins behind and fight for a chance to make the postseason. Here is my most fair analysis of the division by record and opinion.

NL East

Nationals (95 Wins)

Braves (92 Wins)

Phillies (86 Wins)

Mets (74 Wins)

Marlins (66 Wins)

 

Nationals

On paper, this is the best team in baseball.  The roster balances a strong run-producing and power based lineup with solid defense behind it.  The Nationals 2013 pitching staff is down-right tough and while the posted a outstanding 3.33 ERA as a group in 2012, 2013 looks to be just as promising (if not better).   What will make the difference in Washington for them not to win as many games is found in Dan Haren and Ross Detwiler. The back end of the rotation looks strong as Haren is committed to regain his form as one of the better pitching talents in the game and Detwiler is primed for a coming out campaign.  As the Nationals #4 and #5 starters, their ability to pitch effectively and late into games, will save the bullpen so it may only have to put in significant work  2-3 days a week.  Having a fresh bullpen for most of season allows a top-tier team to shrink ball games effectively and increases the overall win total.  Haren and Detwiler’s results can make the difference between the Nationals become a 90 win team and a 100 win team.

Braves

In most divisions in baseball, the Braves are the projected division winners- except this one.  As they are a very close second and very few holes in their team, I just do not feel that with the current roster talent, the minor league talent still available to them and the ability to add payroll in the right deal, that anyone can be picked over the Nationals in April.  With that said, the pitching staff, with or without Johnny Venters is awesome.  Hudson is the veteran of a staff who boasts some serious talent.  With Brandon Beachy returning mid-season to supplement any injured starters, the Braves have the ability to make the playoffs as start 3 high end guys based on their 2013 performance.  I believe at some point this year, Mike Minor will find his stride and become the player the Braves envisioned him to be.  The OF to many is the best threesome in baseball and you won’t find much argument here. The only gripe I have with those three players together is their projected strikeout between them and as a club. Justin Upton, BJ Upton and Jason Heyward will combine for 400+ strikeouts over a full season.  If you add Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman to the mix, that number jumps around 650 strikeouts between 5 of their starting players.  If 30+ HRs are coming from all these players then perhaps this is a non-issue but with the Braves not having a real lead-off hitter, I think a different approach may be necessary. I feel the Braves would be better off with players like the Upton brothers shooting the gaps in Atlanta and using their tools to not only be run producers in Turner Field but table setters for the hitters behind them.  This approach could reduce 30-40 strikeouts from each of them and give the Braves a better chance to catch the Nationals for the division and long term success.

Phillies

The Phillies have a rotation, power bats, some speed and experience.  They also have some age, some injury-prone players, a questionable bull pen and Michael Young playing third base.  This may be the last hurrah for the current Phillies team before a rebuilding process begins unless a summer spark can light Citizen’s Bank. There still is power potential and talent on this team.  The OF is blended with a defensive speedster in Ben Revere and two powerful corner outfielders in Brown and Mayberry, to which if they put a full season together can hit 50+ HRs combined.  Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have proven in the past to be lethal but they must capture lighting (and the fountain of youth) in a bottle.  With this team, there is no real key other than performance.  The talent is there in the pitching staff but I do not believe Roy Halladay is going to regain most of his ability to shut down lineups.  If he does not pitch to a decent level, the Phillies won’t be able to chase down the two superior teams in the division

 

Mets

My next blog entry will address the Orange and Blue.

Marlins

A rebuilding year for sure.  The fire sale left only Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco as their pieces of established talent.  This is going to be a long year of scrappy baseball for this team and I am sure that Marlins fans will stop showing up starting….today-  Opening Day Monday.

 

NL Central

Perhaps the most clear cut division in the game as of now.  Of course, anything can happen over 162 games but the talent built and the track record of the current players on each roster make this a fairly  easy division to predict by place (minus actual record).

Reds (92 games)

Cardinals (87 games)

Brewers (84 wins)

Pirates (82 games)

Cubs  (67 wins)

 

Reds

How can this team build on its 2012 performance?  It will not by record but overall performance, it will prove again that it can compete against the Nationals, Braves and Dodgers in the NL.  The starting lineup may be as good as any in the game featuring Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips.  Newly acquired Shin-Soo Choo and young stars Zack Cozart and Todd Frasier should bring solid all-around play. The Reds should have an offense capable of scoring on a nightly basis.  The starting rotation is filled with quality starters.  As the world heralds Homer Bailey for his playoff performance in 2012, I would suggest watching Mike Leake.  He is a pitcher who is a step away from really making the back of the Reds rotation a strength.  The bullpen, anchored my Aroldis Chapman offers quality arms and one of the better squads to shrink a game on the back end.  As long as health holds up at the end of September, watch for the Reds to make a big push towards the 2013 World Series.

Cardinals

This team is very good.  It has some weaknesses that keep it from the division crown but a solid team.  My concerns with the club lie in the unproven talent it offers on the left side on the infield and second base, the overall health concerns with Beltran in right field and if players like Allen Craig and John Jay can take steps forward in 2013.  The pitching staff should provide results that Cardinals teams are accustom to provide in both the rotation and bullpen (regardless of injuries).  As the world should watch out of Oscar Taveras by the summer time, he will not be ready to be a consistent threat until 2014.

Brewers

The Brewers disappointed me last year.  They lost Prince Fielder and never fully recovered on a morale level until late in 2013.  Losing Mat Gamel at first base really hurts the squad and an acquisition may be needed unless Corey Hart can return healthy and to form.  Otherwise, this team is in a strong position to play .500+ baseball in the first half and potentially better in the second half.  Kyle Lohse may make a huge difference in the second half of the season, once he gets used to his battery mates and is in full pitching shape.

Pirates

I would love to say this team has second place potential but being it has not seeing the positive side on the plus .500 winning percentage, I will take the safe prediction that it will achieve that. Andrew McCutchen proved himself to be a top talent in the game.  The questions from Bucs camp this year revolve around some young talent: Can Pedro Alvarez develop his game past just a 30 HR hitter?; Is Garret Jones really a quality player or one still on the cusp?; Starling Marte is a “star” in the making but will he be able to provide the speed and power balance necessary to upgrade the LF position for years to come starting in 2013?  In the rotation, there is a lot of talent with decent upside but when A.J. Burnett would seem to be unlikely to provide equal 20123 stats to 2012, can newly-acquired Wandy Rodriguez, Jonathan Sanchez and others regain their form and build that rotation towards success?  Time will tell.

Cubs

Like the Padres, this team has a few core pieces in place but a lot of work ahead. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo provide the basis of a foundation that GM Theo Epstein can use to find the necessary pieces around them of long term success.  With an average rotation and suspect bullpen, the Cubs would need some major results out of a lot of players having career years.  Consider this year an evaluation year for the Cubs as their youth mature and the bad contracts reach closer to finality. 

 

And finally, the NL East

I won’t even try to hide my bias here, so let me lead off by saying this is obviously my favorite division in baseball.  In another year or two, I believe this will become the toughest division in the majors, although as it stands right now that honor goes to their American League counter-parts.  In 2013 I believe this ill be a very top-heavy division led by three teams, with a huge gap between them and the remaining two.  It always seems like there’s three competitive teams here, though the names may change from year to year, which is why I believe this is annually one of the most exciting divisions to watch.  So without further ado, let’s proceed with my final divisional prediction…

#1 Washington Nationals

In 2010 I predicted this team would be ready to seriously compete by 2013.  While they did surpass my expectations last year, I believe my prediction was right on target, and this team has a very good shot of getting to the World Series this October.  Let’s start with their rotation…Anchored by Stephen Strasburg, this team boasts the best 1-3 in their rotation in the National League.  It has already been confirmed that, unlike last year, Strasburg will be let completely off the leash and have zero limits on his innings pitched total.  Last year he was striking guys out at the rate of 11 per 9 innings pitched.  Had he not been limited, he would have been around 250 strikeouts by the time the regular season ended, which would have made him best in the bigs in that category.  Gio Gonzalez finished 2012 with the most wins in the majors, the 6th-best ERA in the NL, and 4th-best in strikeouts in the NL; Clearly the move to the National League suited him well.  On most teams he’s the staff ace, in Washington he’s the second-best pitcher.  Then behind him is Jordan Zimmerman, who has had two very solid seasons in a row.  The biggest concern with him is his health, but if he can give the Nats around 30 starts, he’s as good a #3 as any in the majors.  They acquired Dan Haren this off-season, and he worries me a bit.  While the move back to the National League will be good for him, he is already losing some of his velocity as Spring Training has gone on.  They solidified their closer role by signing Rafael Soriano, who has always excelled in that role and saved 42 games for the Yankees last year.  Offensively, this team is stacked with talent.  They went and got Denard Span to play center, who gives them a solid player to man the leadoff position.  Bryce Harper returns for his sophomore year, and will look to build on a great rookie season.  As he will be starting the year with the big league club in 2013, I look for him to hit around 30-35 home runs, and hit around .280-.285 if he can cut back on the strikeouts just a little bit.  This is not going too far out on a limb considering he now has almost a season of experience under his belt.  The Nationals will not run away from this division, but when the last game of the regular season is over they will be on top.

#2 Atlanta Braves

I will save my Braves analysis for tomorrow, when I will be posting a complete preview article on their 2013 season

#3 Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are a team in decline, but they aren’t going away without a fight.  I actually think they will be a little better than many think, and I can see them winning around 80-85 games this year again.  They have a lot of age and health concerns on their team, but they also have a couple of young, talented guys on the roster that can be their future if they are cultivated properly.  They still have their big three in the rotation – Halladay, Hamels, and Lee.  Halladay seems to have been in the league forever, and there’s a ton of mileage on his arm.  His ERA took a huge spike last year, and his Spring isn’t going well either (11ER in 16 IP, only 16K).  Lee had his usual success in 2012, but his lack of run support was absurd.  If his team can figure out how to score some runs with him on the mound, his win totals will go back up to where they used to be.  Hamels is now the best pitcher on the team, and he certainly pitched like it last year.  With more youth on his side than the two previously mentioned, this will be the guy the Phillies move forward with.  If they find themselves falling too far behind in the division I believe they will look to move Lee, and unfortunately be stuck with Halladay as damaged goods.  I can’t say for sure, but I’d be willing to bet the Phillies may have the oldest infield in baseball – not good for positions that rely on athleticism.  Utley and Rollins – when healthy – have now become  .250 hitters, and Howard is even worse (although he can still hit around 30 home runs).  Newly-acquired Micheal Young becomes their best infielder, and even he has seen his numbers decline over the last four seasons.  Their outfield is where their youth movement lies.  All three – John Mayberry, Ben Revere, and Domonic Brown – have an average age of 26, and two of the three will be starting their first year on a major league roster.  Revere has legit speed, registering 40 swipes and nearly a .300 average in just 124 games last season.  Brown will take over right field full-time, but he will need to cut back on his strikeouts.  If he can do that, he’s got 25-home run potential, and he’s even displayed some speed at different levels in the minors to go along with it.  I’m predicting this team will be sellers at the deadline, but with the Mets and Marlins behind them, they should have no problem finishing third.

#4 New York Mets

Talk about a team full of question marks.  Will David Wright, Daniel Murphy, Shaun Marcum, and Ike Davis stay healthy?  Will Marlon Byrd have a career renaissance?  Will Matt Harvey live up to his potential in the grueling marathon known as the baseball season?  Who will be playing center field by year’s end?  As a Braves fan I relish in the opportunity to tear this team apart, but to be honest I do feel sorry for them.  I don’t know if it’s a curse, bad luck, or bad karma…but this team certainly goes through it all.  This weekend it was made official that Santana is having season-ending (and likely career-ending) surgery on his shoulder again.  Wright and Murphy both suffered an intercostal injury this Spring, and the Mets are holding their breath that those injuries won’t linger throughout the season – although both will be starting on opening day.  Ike Davis has all the potential in the world, but has a hard time staying healthy.  Last year he finally managed to play the whole year, but produced a career-low batting average (by a long shot) while still hitting 32 home runs.  In my mind there are two players on this roster to keep an eye on: Matt Harvey and Jordany Valdespin.  Valdespin is currently listed third on the depth chart in center behind Collin Cowgill and Byrd, which I can’t really figure out.  Byrd is the starting left fielder, so for all intents and purposes let’s slide Valdespin up to the backup role.  The two have about the same amount of major league experience in terms of at-bats, but Valdespin has more speed potential, higher batting average potential, and he strikes out less at the major league level. Cowgill may have a little more power, but it’s not like he hits the stitches off the ball, and Valdespin does have a little pop.  To me Valdespin has the bigger ceiling, and he’s the guy I will pick to finish the year in Center.  Harvey will be this team’s ace in 2014.  From what I’m hearing they will not place an innings limit on him, but in a year when this team is not expected to compete, that just seems foolish to me.  Last year he started 10 games of the big league club and struck out 70 in almost 60 innings of work with an ERA in the mid-2’s.  He may have a hard time finding wins due to a lack of run support, but I bet he continues the success he had last year at this level.  This is a year of evaluation for the Mets, but if they can pick the right guys to keep and make a few crafty trades, they may find relevance – in a tough division – by the 2015 season.

#5 Miami Marlins

This team is not good.  I know, that’s some top-notch analysis.  In my mind, this is one of the most poorly-run franchises in Major League Baseball.  They win the World Series in 1997, then sell off all their talent.  They win the World Series again in 2003, then sell off all their talent.  Then in 2012 they get a new Stadium, City, and logo…they spend millions of dollars on free agents, and bring in a hot-head manager….then lose 93 games and sell off all their talent once more.  Now they head into 2013 with a roster that rivals my opinion of the Padres.  They have no reliable starting pitchers, a guy closing who has never done it before, and the only offensive threats in the lineup are Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Pierre, and Placido Polanco – who will be 37 heading into his 16th major league season.  This team is capable of losing around 110 games this year, which would put them on pace to compete with the Astros as the worst team in the Majors.  If the Padres are the triple-A team of the MLB, the Marlins are the double-A team.  This time last year it looked like this franchise was heading it’s way back toward post-season contention, but just one year later it looks like that is still years away.

NL West

The NL West posts three very good teams and two very questionable ones.  Any of the top three teams could win the division with a few positive breaks however, I think the true testament to success will be found in continuity of the ball club and not in the spending sprees of its squad.  With that said, let’s look at my 2013 predictions and allow the game to tell the tale.

NL West

D’Backs (92 games)

Giants (90 games)

Dodgers (85 games)

Rockies (75 games)

Padres (74 games)

Arizona

When it comes to a complete team, I will give Arizona  the leg up.  Its pitching staff is well-rounded and filled with talent.  It’s line-up, while seeing its best hitting talent traded to Atlanta, may have found an easy way to replace the .280 average 17HR/67RBI/18 of Upton last year through Parra/Eaton and Cody Ross.  Meanwhile, they acquired pieces to continue to be good for years to come.  As there is a lot of talent in this division, the best opportunity to be had is by the D’Backs using their talent and having all the pieces together for success.

Giants

This very strong Giants ball club will always be a threat in the playoffs with its dynamic pitching Cain and Bumgarner are proving to the top-tier pitching talent and a resurgence of Tim Lincecum could be a deadly three-sum a top the rotation.  My biggest concerns with this team is found in its outfield.  Hunter Pence is the best hitting OF of the group and defensively they will provide solid defense.  However,  I must examine the significant contract Angel Pagan received and how his bat (along with Gregor Blanco’s) will make an impact with regards to the lack of power on this club.  If Sandoval and Brandon Belt can manage 25-30 HR each, maybe they will get by.  Otherwise I see a lot of gap hitting and manufacturing runs which always makes me believe that in a season stretch the big hitting teams of the NL will get the best of them enough to hold them from a division crown.

Dodgers

I think it has been proven that when you spend a lot of money, all it does is sell tickets until it fails.  The Dodgers have a serious amount of talent on its roster and no one can deny that.  Many people have the Dodgers as the winner of the NL West or a close second.  I am putting this team third because I will need to be proven wrong that injuries won’t hurt this team enough to basically miss the playoffs.  Crawford, Kemp and Either, while all great talents, have had their share of injury issues that have held them back in their career.  To expect 150 games out of all three of these guys is frankly ridiculous to demand.  Hanley Ramirez has already made his extended trip to the DL. Is Greinke’s elbow or Beckett’s …everything gonna last long enough for him to be productive.  What is the situation with the bullpen/closer role?  There is just a lot of questions regarding potential that with most teams would not even put them at .500 but with the Dodgers, there range is very broad based on the talent they have acquired.  And if somehow, the Dodgers can acquire a player like Robinson Cano by the trade deadline (may not happen but you never know), then all bets are off.

Rockies

Let’s face it, to pitch in Colorado is just cruel.  Your numbers look terrible and shopping for a contract is mighty tough to do leaving it for another club.  That is why the Rockies carry some great bats and hope for the best.  The Rockies will be better this year.  Rutledge and the return of Troy Tulowitizki provide a lot of upside in the middle of the diamond.  Other excellent hitters like Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Helton and the young and promising catcher Wilin Rosario will give this lineup a run-production jolt.  Couple Dexter Fowler and Cuddyer to set the table for production and this ballclub looks decent…and then there is the pitching.  If the Rockies can find an average pitching staff, the club will be better than most people think…but that task may be a little too much to ask for.

Padres

This team is a few years away.  It’s best player, Chase Headley, is not likely to return to action until mid-May at the earliest. The other seven starters all have question marks.  As Yonder Alonso is a player I do think has some talent, he power numbers last year were very discouraging.  Cameron Maybin does not only seem overly-hyped in the young career but, to me, he is incredible awkward and devoid of refined athletic ability. San Diego has some pitching options in its rotation which may help them stay close in games but even if their bullpen keeps them close still, run production will be suspect. 

 

It is safe to say that if you could combine the pitching of San Diego with the hitting of Colorado (plus a healthy Chase Headley) maybe then could these friars of the great mountains compete.

 

The NL Central, 2013 Edition

The NL Central has been a fairly easy division to predict over the last decade.  The Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates have been mostly bad, the Reds have been coming on strong the last couple years, and the Cardinals always seem to be in contention.  Things have been changing lately, however, as the Reds won the division a year ago with the second-best record in the national league.  The Pirates have been improving, and fell just 4 wins short of breaking their 20 year losing-season streak last year.  Could this be the year it finally comes to an end?  Can the Reds repeat as division champions and match their 97-win performance?  Will the Brewers and Cubs have any impact on the outcome of this division?  Here’s how I think it goes down…

 

#1 Cincinnati Reds

Since I expect a few more wins from three of the other four teams in this division compared to last year, I’m going to say the Reds will have a hard time winning 97 again; I will put it more around the 90-92.  I actually had a hard time deciding who would take #1 and #2 here between the Reds and (spoiler alert) Cardinals, but ultimately decided to go with Cincinnati here because they have a little more talent on the infield, a slightly better rotation, and less question marks.  Homer Bailey FINALLY stayed healthy for an entire season last year, and it paid off with solid production.  I wouldn’t count on him starting 33 games again this year, but if he can at least give them a solid 28+, he’s proven he has the talent to get the job done.  Latos started the season in 2012 horrifically, leaving many to question if he was really the young high-upside guy everyone thought he was, or just the product of VERY pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  He adjusted to the new park, and had a fantastic second half, which I have no reason to doubt he will resume this year.  I love Cueto at the top of the rotation, and Arroyo will give you what he always does.  He doesn’t rely on pitch speed to be successful, so his age doesn’t bother me.  Perhaps the best off-season move the Reds made this year had nothing to do with trades, free-agent signing, or contract extensions…I absolutely love that they put Chapman back in the closer role, where he belongs.  Good luck scoring runs in the ninth inning against these guys.  One player I really like on this team is Zach Cozart.  He’s got the talent to be a 5-tool player, but he strikes out way too much, which drives his batting average down.  He stole 30 bases in the minors 3 years ago so I know he has speed, but the Reds hardly ever rely on it.  He’s got above-average power for a shortstop, and if he can manage a little more plate discipline this year it could pay dividends.  So far this Spring he is striking out once every 6 at-bats, as opposed to once every 4 at-bats in 2012.  It’s mild improvement in a much shorter sample size, but something worth keeping an eye on.  Ludwig finally had a productive season after a couple years of bouncing around the league, and the Reds rewarded him with a contract extension.  In this park I see no reason why he cant repeat a .275-.280 avg and mid-20’s for home runs.  The Reds also added Shin-Soo Choo, who brings a little bit of everything to the table if he can stay healthy.  Plus with guys like Votto and Bruce in the lineup, this team will have no problem scoring runs and propelling to another division title.

#2 St. Louis Cardinals

Here’s a team that made a Cinderella-type run to a World Series Championship two years ago, and won the inaugural Wild Card Playoff game against the Braves last year to get into the post season.  The team is very well built, with talent all over the place.  Their closer situation worries me a bit…Mott is currently sidelined with a strained elbow, and elbow injuries always make me nervous with pitchers – particularly the hard-throwing ones.  Mitchell Boggs will fill in for him, but he doesn’t throw the strikeouts I like from closers.  Wainwright is a solid ace, and Jaime Garcia is good when healthy.  Lance Lynn had a phenomenal first half last year, but finished terribly.  It was his first full season in the rotation, so I speculate his arm got tired; I will be very interested to see how he does in season #2.  If Beltran can stay healthy (which he managed to do last year since he wasn’t wearing a Mets jersey) the Cardinals have an outfield that rivals the Braves as best in the league.  Their infield is inexperienced, but I love Allen Craig and I think Pete Kozma has legitimate upside.  With Lynn, Beltran, Garcia, and Mott as major question marks I cannot put this team above the Reds, but if it all works out this could be a tight division race in September.

#3 Milwaukee Brewers

One thing I didn’t realize until I started researching for this post, and it took me quite a bit by surprise, is that the Brewers have the 10th-highest payroll in the Majors.  Umm, what?!  A team that has Alex Gonzalez at first, Jean Segura at shortstop, Carlos Gomez in Center, and Norichika Aoki in right field has a payroll just shy of $100 million?!  They all may be decent players, but not the caliber of players I’d expect on a $100 million roster.  I placed this team in third place instead of fourth or fifth for a couple reasons – and believe me, none of them were just mentioned.  I love the one-two punch of Gallardo-Lohse at the front end of the rotation.  I was surprised it took as long as it did for Lohse to get signed by somebody, but finally the Brewers conceded and gave up their 17th overall draft pick to get him.  Behind them is Marco Estrada, who I think will be a big contributor for this club in 2013.  If the Brewers can score enough runs, they’ve got an elite guy in Axford to close out games.  Now let’s shift to the offense.  Obviously Ryan Braun – my 6-year man crush – is a stud.  What worries me with him is a looming suspension.  Reports say MLB is going hard after Braun and Alex Rodriguez in connection with the Biogenesis Clinic.  Braun beat the system before, I wouldn’t blame MLB for wanting to nail him to the wall this time (although I am still in the minority that question the validity of his “positive” test, but that’s a whole other topic of discussion).  If he’s out for 50 games at any point this season, their outfield is in trouble.  The infield has question marks written all over it as well…Aramis Ramirez is playing on bad knees, which is bad news at his age.  Rickie Weeks strikes out way too much to only be a 20-HR guy, so if he’s going to continue batting in the low-mid .200’s and striking out around 150 times a year, he better get his home runs back up around 30, like he did back in 2010.  If this team is going to spend this much money, they need to have a better roster than what they’ve got.  Teams like the Braves, Reds, and Rays – just to name a few – have a significantly lower payroll, and much more talent and success.  Get your stuff together, Milwaukee.

#4 Pittsburgh Pirates

Just when it looked like their 20-year losing streak was going to come to an end, they fell short.  This year I think they can come close again, but eventually fall into the same fate as 2012.  Outside of Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez this offense doesn’t have a whole lot of talent, and the rotation has question marks and depth concerns.  I don’t trust AJ Burnett, but he was surprisingly effective in his return to the National League last year.  I’d like to see him do it again before I have any confidence in him, but maybe he just needed to get out of the New York City spotlight.  I like the addition of Wandy Rodriguez as the #2, and James McDonald is a serviceable 3.  If the Pirates can find a way to score runs, this staff is capable of keeping games close as long as it stays healthy.  Russell Martin adds a little pop from behind the plate, but he is obviously way past his prime, so anything more than 15 home runs should be considered a gift in this park.  With McCutchen and Alvarez being the only big run producers, and an average rotation that lacks depth I can see this team winning around 75-80 games, but not much more.

#5 Chicago Cubs

With Houston gone, the Cubs now become the bottom feeders.  But hey, they don’t seem to care, so why should I?  This is a good example of a team that has been bad for a long time and simply doesn’t care, because they still sell out the ballpark.  They brought in Theo Epstein before last year, which showed they may desire to make a move in an upward direction, but it won’t happen this year with this roster.  Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo will be the stars of the team.  Soriano may hit around 20-25 homers, but he’s going to strike out a ton, and he just had is 37th birthday .  I like Samardzija and Garza in the rotation, and nobody else.  Their bullpen is terrible, and Marmol is a wild card in the ninth inning.  It will take time for Epstein’s contributions to be noticed, but for 2013 the Cubs will spend the season at the bottom of the pile.

The AL West (what a mess)

Out of all of the divisions in baseball, I always seem to have the least bit of interest in this race.  However, things are different now…the Astros join the group…yay.  As I do believe the Astros will be a quality franchise again in the not-so-distant future, I feel that this division has the same stories each year over the last few years:  The Angels paying a lot of money for people and underachieving; the Rangers putting together a quality club but cannot consistently put it together for a World Series title; the Marniers having talent but struggling to consistently be relevant in the division; The Athletics playing the “Cinderella” story but never taking the capital gained into the organization  and inflating their payroll to complete with other mid-level market teams.  Now adding the Astros, who never truly re-built their organization from the days of Billy Wagner, the Killer B’s and Ken Caminiti, brings a lot of further uncertainty to the plate.

Here are my 2013 AL West predictions:

AL West

Angels  (96 Wins)

Rangers (86 Wins)

Mariners (86 WIns)

Athletics (82 Wins)

Astros (68 wins)

 

Angels

As Mike Trout erupted on to the scene last year, I do not believe he can take his sophomore performance and out-do his rookie year.  There is a lot of hype and adjustment coming from the future star. He will have an excellent year and I believe he can be one of the leading producers on the club but predicting him to hit .327 with 34 HR, 96 RBIs and 55 SBs seems a little unfair to the guy.  I think Trout can find a home hitting .316 with 30 HR, 100-110 RBIs and maybe 25-30SB.

If you recall the 2012 Angels experience, Pujols, Hendrick and other players did not even hit their weight for the first month or two of the season.  I believe you will see more production to start the year out of the corner OFs, first base, second base and DH combined in April of this year than April of last year. This will help them get off to a better start and set the tone. Replacing Torii Hunter (a formidable professional- but an aging one) with Josh Hamilton in RF is an excellent talent replacement.   With a quality rotation and decent bullpen (every bullpen has some issue in April), the Angels should win this division.  Their AL dominance will still remain to be seen.

Rangers

As the Angels gain Josh Hamilton, the Rangers lose him.  For the Rangers however, they might be a little glad to see him go for the price tag he commanded.  The organization seemed like it wanted to move in another direction from the challenging situation of Josh Hamilton.  It is amazing how talented he can be and yet how a relapse of his alcohol or drug use could make his multimillion dollar investment into a non-producing element.  The Rangers move forward with young talent in the OF with Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry.  As they are missing Beyond Beltre, there is an absence of a strong and consistent power bat in the lineup.  As “playing small ball” and quality pitching will be what is necessary for success, the Rangers would only be one move away to acquire available power talent and lift this team back into a serious contender.  The Rangers do have the pieces to make such a trade and with a notoriously-weak hitting first baseman in Mitch Moreland, I am sure talent will be available to acquire one, should it be needed.  In the meantime, acquisitions Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski will look to provide gap and HR power with Kinsler, Cruz and Murphy. 

Marniers

Health is the biggest issue for this club but if they can put that together, this could be a year of resurgence in Seattle. Morse, Gutierrez and Saunders provide and interesting and dynamic OF of 2013.  There is a lot of talent within that group and, if healthy, could carry this ball club into relevance.   The Mariners infield feature three more players who can truly make all the difference in Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero.  If these guys play to their ability, the Mariners will have a serious offensive team.  My hope is that Justin Smoak either plays to his potential or is sent to the minors because one can only wait so long for maturity.  My best wishes to him. 

What scares me about this team is its starting pitching.  I am not scared of its depth as I think as it grows that it will be strong.  My fear in my bold prediction is in Felix Hernandez….  (I know what you might be saying…WHAT THE &#%@?!)  Signing such a big contract will have some players rest on their laurels a tad.  I believe that King Felix will not do so and that is where the taxed arm of Felix Hernandez may become a issue.  My fear with King Felix is the one that I had with Roy Halladay and that looks to be coming true. My unfortunate prediction is that Felix Hernandez will either be shut down or have arm surgery by the end of the 2014 season.  The question is two fold:  Am I right?  and  Can he make it through?  If he is fine, I will hold my strong prediction.  If he is not, They will be moved down to fourth in the standings.

Athletics

It is not that the Athletics are bad or do not have talent.  They absolutely do.  They just irritate me.  I cannot run a baseball league like an under achieving MLB the show franchise and torment myself as a fan of the game.  I feel like the owners of the club just wants to profit and do not care about the product.  As many owners are like that in the sport, it just is so obvious in Oakland that it blows me away.   The A’s have taken a step back in their rotation and as it will prove to be decent, it could have taken a step forward in adding talent…not losing Brandon McCarthy.  I am not sold that Josh Reddick will duplicate his 2012 stats and luckily Yoenis Cespedes has such high-upside, he may be able to cover it. Adding Lowrie is helpful but to how much of an extent?  Too many questions for me to endorse this club.  Usually organization who have a strong core of talent make additions to it to build upon success, excite the fan base and look to improve.  The A’s “Moneyball” practice is more like pulling of a Valparaiso-like upset than creating an established and winning organization.

Astros

All I am going to say about this Astros is that this is a year of evaluation.  The organization does have talent within it.  The question is which talent will make itself the building blocks to the future of the organization, which ones will be traded for more puzzle pieces and which others will fall by the waste-side.  My one player to watch is Brett Wallace.  This is an athletic and strong kid who has some potential to be the first real first baseman for this club since Jeff Bagwell.  I would love to see him put on a show in the first half and get the buzz going on a player that will be in a majority of your fantasy squads by years’ end (shameless fantasy plug being notated). I would expect that good personal years from Bud Norris or Lucas Harrell should attract trade talk at the trade deadline in July.

 

 

A More Intriguing NL West in 2013

The NL West as been a division that has gone mostly unnoticed in the last decade (for the most part), primarily because they simply haven’t put great quality teams on the field as a division.  Each year there seems to be one stand-out, then the rest ranging from mediocre to bad.  I believe we will see an improvement in the NL West in 2013 as a whole.

#1 Los Angeles Dodgers

Here is a team that pushed in all their chips around the trade deadline last year, and expects to make a strong push for the World Series this year.  After years of mediocrity the ownership group led by none other than Irving “Magic” Johnson has shown in one quick year that mediocrity isn’t going to be good enough.  This is an historic franchise with a proud tradition, and things are about to change for the Dodgers.  I don’t believe they are clear favorites in the National League, but they are toward the top of the list.  They have the best pitcher in the National league to anchor their rotation, and Greinke is as reliable a pitcher as you can get from a health standpoint, but beyond them are a few question marks.  Can Beckett return to form?  The move to the national league will certainly help, and he is moving to a MUCH more pitcher-friendly ballpark; In 2012 Fenway Park ranked #3, Dodger Stadium ranked #25 in runs scored.  Billingsly has been somewhat reliable for them, but his strikeout numbers have come down considerably in the last few years.  And what will the Korean-born Ryu bring to the table?  Offensively, this team is more than capable of scoring runs. With Kemp in the outfield, Ramirez at shortstop, and Adrian Gonzalez at first base they have three top-tier players at their respective positions.  They don’t have great depth at short, which will cause problems until Hanley returns from injury (it appears the organization is losing faith in Dee Gordon as they have already sent him to AAA).  Crawford in left is a concern, but if he can stay healthy, he may see more success at the plate in the National League.  They signed Brandon League to be their closer, but I’m not a fan…he pitches to contact, and that’s just not something I look for in a closer.  If he doesn’t work out, however, they have the capable Kenley Jansen waiting for the call.

#2 San Francisco Giants

Division winners from a year ago, this is a very well-built team that will win a lot of games for the foreseeable future.  The rotation is solid, even with Barry Zito contributing admirably as the fifth starter in his 12th MLB season.  Tim Lincecum still looks lost on the mound, and has yet to regain his velocity.  2013 is not looking good for him, as he has given up 13 earned runs in just 10.2 innings of work this month.  Its quite possible Zito could have a better year than him by the end of the season – and that’s exactly what happened last year.  Just two short seasons ago who would have ever predicted such a fate?  I never liked his mechanics, and pegged him as a prime candidate for Tommy John surgery at some point in his career.  I can see him taking a stint in the minors for some time this year to try to get things right.  The Giants have a solid closer, and a good mix of young and veteran talent around the diamond.  The ballpark is horrendous on hitters, but away from home this team has a lot of pop in their lineup between Posey, Sandoval, Pence, and Belt.  Oh yeah, that Belt guy will be the team’s MVP this year.  No disrespect to his teammate and defending NL MVP Buster Posey, but I truly believe Belt’s time has come.  He will finally see the field on a daily basis, which I believe was his biggest problem last year.  Young hitters need as many at-bats as possible to get comfortable and make adjustments.  The odds were staked against him last year while playing sporadically.  He has been tearing up the cactus league this month, hitting .448 with 8 home runs in 67 at-bats, so I will go ahead and become a believer.  The division race between the Dodgers and Giants should go down to the final few games as I believe both teams are constructed extremely well.  Both teams have a lot of talent on both sides, but I’m going to give the slight talent edge to the Dodgers, and predict the Giants take a Wild Card spot about 2 games behind the Dodgers.

#3 Arizona Diamondbacks

This is an interesting team, and they will be the reason the Dodgers and Giants won’t be able to pull away from each other.  The Diamondbacks will be like that annoying third party candidate in political elections that has no shot of winning, but steals votes from the other two primary candidates.  While they aren’t quite put together to win the division yet, they are good enough to hang with the best of ’em.  They’ve got a young stud in Goldschmidt, and great veteran talent in Montero, Kubel, Hill, and the newly acquired Martin Prado.  Their pitching staff is their biggest flaw, which will not bode well in that hitter-friendly ballpark of theirs.  Brandon McCarthy seems to be on the Disabled List more often than not, and Cahill is average at best.  Wade Miley has some promising skill, but I’d like to see more of him before giving him my vote of confidence.  As a Braves fan I will say this with utmost confidence – the Arizona Diamondbacks screwed up royally in their Upton trade by choosing to take Randall Delgado over Julio Teheran, because the Braves gave them the choice.  Delgado has two pitches, and projects as a mid-level fifth starter, while Teheran has ace-type material.  Last year’s stats may have scared the Diamondbacks away from Teheran, but he altered his mechanics slightly, added a new pitch, and here is his Spring line: 26 IP, 1.04 ERA, 3 wins, 0.62 WHIP, 9BB, 35K.  More on Teheran in my Atlanta Braves preview.

#4 Colorado Rockies

The Rockies can be a bit hard to predict, because usually when they do well nobody sees it coming.  They have an above-average offense that certainly plays well at home, but on the road this team struggles more.  Team veteran and one of the two biggest stars on the roster, Troy Tulowitzki, has a hard time staying healthy every year.  He’s only played in more than 150 games twice in his career, and the Rockies will need better than that if they want to achieve success.  Outside of him and fellow stud Carlos Gonzalez, things get a bit shaky.  Dexter Fowler, who has historically been a perennial disappointment, finally put together a decent season last year – now let’s see if he can do it again.  Helton and Cuddyer are the old men of the group, both past their prime, and Cuddyer is also an annual DL frequent-flyer.  It’s hard to pass judgement on any of their pitchers, because nobody pitches well in Colorado.  The bottom line is the three teams I believe will be above them are just so much better that the Rockies don’t have much of a shot at success right now.  They won 64 games last year, and I can see an improvement of no more than ten wins at best.

#5 San Diego Padres

Here is the minor league team of the National League.  There is a ton of young talent – Yonder Alonso, Everth Cabrera, Cameron Maybin – but this is a terrible ballpark for young hitters, and there isn’t enough veteran leadership to guide them.  Carlos Quentin and Cody Ransom are their veterans, so that speaks for itself.  Their rotation is actually halfway respectable, with Volquez and Richards at the top followed by Stults and Marquis.  It’s certainly not a championship-caliber rotation, but I do like it better than the Rockies.  The Padres seem to be in a perpetual re-building phase, and they are still a long way off from being taken seriously.  Last year they had the lowest team salary in the Majors, so it’s no mystery why things are the way they are in San Diego.  It’s sad, and can easily be fixed with a salary cap in the sport, but I won’t get started on that….