NL East

The NL East is probably the division that my co-blogger and I can speak strongest towards. Being devout fans, for better or for worse, we know our enemies as well as our own teams. The division used to hold a simple formula for most of my childhood: All roads go through Atlanta. Then the Mets made a hiccup and thwarted the Braves’ dominance before the Phillies began their run. Then came Washington. Now Washington, Atlanta and Philadelphia will leave the Mets and Marlins behind and fight for a chance to make the postseason. Here is my most fair analysis of the division by record and opinion.

NL East

Nationals (95 Wins)

Braves (92 Wins)

Phillies (86 Wins)

Mets (74 Wins)

Marlins (66 Wins)

 

Nationals

On paper, this is the best team in baseball.  The roster balances a strong run-producing and power based lineup with solid defense behind it.  The Nationals 2013 pitching staff is down-right tough and while the posted a outstanding 3.33 ERA as a group in 2012, 2013 looks to be just as promising (if not better).   What will make the difference in Washington for them not to win as many games is found in Dan Haren and Ross Detwiler. The back end of the rotation looks strong as Haren is committed to regain his form as one of the better pitching talents in the game and Detwiler is primed for a coming out campaign.  As the Nationals #4 and #5 starters, their ability to pitch effectively and late into games, will save the bullpen so it may only have to put in significant work  2-3 days a week.  Having a fresh bullpen for most of season allows a top-tier team to shrink ball games effectively and increases the overall win total.  Haren and Detwiler’s results can make the difference between the Nationals become a 90 win team and a 100 win team.

Braves

In most divisions in baseball, the Braves are the projected division winners- except this one.  As they are a very close second and very few holes in their team, I just do not feel that with the current roster talent, the minor league talent still available to them and the ability to add payroll in the right deal, that anyone can be picked over the Nationals in April.  With that said, the pitching staff, with or without Johnny Venters is awesome.  Hudson is the veteran of a staff who boasts some serious talent.  With Brandon Beachy returning mid-season to supplement any injured starters, the Braves have the ability to make the playoffs as start 3 high end guys based on their 2013 performance.  I believe at some point this year, Mike Minor will find his stride and become the player the Braves envisioned him to be.  The OF to many is the best threesome in baseball and you won’t find much argument here. The only gripe I have with those three players together is their projected strikeout between them and as a club. Justin Upton, BJ Upton and Jason Heyward will combine for 400+ strikeouts over a full season.  If you add Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman to the mix, that number jumps around 650 strikeouts between 5 of their starting players.  If 30+ HRs are coming from all these players then perhaps this is a non-issue but with the Braves not having a real lead-off hitter, I think a different approach may be necessary. I feel the Braves would be better off with players like the Upton brothers shooting the gaps in Atlanta and using their tools to not only be run producers in Turner Field but table setters for the hitters behind them.  This approach could reduce 30-40 strikeouts from each of them and give the Braves a better chance to catch the Nationals for the division and long term success.

Phillies

The Phillies have a rotation, power bats, some speed and experience.  They also have some age, some injury-prone players, a questionable bull pen and Michael Young playing third base.  This may be the last hurrah for the current Phillies team before a rebuilding process begins unless a summer spark can light Citizen’s Bank. There still is power potential and talent on this team.  The OF is blended with a defensive speedster in Ben Revere and two powerful corner outfielders in Brown and Mayberry, to which if they put a full season together can hit 50+ HRs combined.  Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have proven in the past to be lethal but they must capture lighting (and the fountain of youth) in a bottle.  With this team, there is no real key other than performance.  The talent is there in the pitching staff but I do not believe Roy Halladay is going to regain most of his ability to shut down lineups.  If he does not pitch to a decent level, the Phillies won’t be able to chase down the two superior teams in the division

 

Mets

My next blog entry will address the Orange and Blue.

Marlins

A rebuilding year for sure.  The fire sale left only Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco as their pieces of established talent.  This is going to be a long year of scrappy baseball for this team and I am sure that Marlins fans will stop showing up starting….today-  Opening Day Monday.

 

NL Central

Perhaps the most clear cut division in the game as of now.  Of course, anything can happen over 162 games but the talent built and the track record of the current players on each roster make this a fairly  easy division to predict by place (minus actual record).

Reds (92 games)

Cardinals (87 games)

Brewers (84 wins)

Pirates (82 games)

Cubs  (67 wins)

 

Reds

How can this team build on its 2012 performance?  It will not by record but overall performance, it will prove again that it can compete against the Nationals, Braves and Dodgers in the NL.  The starting lineup may be as good as any in the game featuring Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips.  Newly acquired Shin-Soo Choo and young stars Zack Cozart and Todd Frasier should bring solid all-around play. The Reds should have an offense capable of scoring on a nightly basis.  The starting rotation is filled with quality starters.  As the world heralds Homer Bailey for his playoff performance in 2012, I would suggest watching Mike Leake.  He is a pitcher who is a step away from really making the back of the Reds rotation a strength.  The bullpen, anchored my Aroldis Chapman offers quality arms and one of the better squads to shrink a game on the back end.  As long as health holds up at the end of September, watch for the Reds to make a big push towards the 2013 World Series.

Cardinals

This team is very good.  It has some weaknesses that keep it from the division crown but a solid team.  My concerns with the club lie in the unproven talent it offers on the left side on the infield and second base, the overall health concerns with Beltran in right field and if players like Allen Craig and John Jay can take steps forward in 2013.  The pitching staff should provide results that Cardinals teams are accustom to provide in both the rotation and bullpen (regardless of injuries).  As the world should watch out of Oscar Taveras by the summer time, he will not be ready to be a consistent threat until 2014.

Brewers

The Brewers disappointed me last year.  They lost Prince Fielder and never fully recovered on a morale level until late in 2013.  Losing Mat Gamel at first base really hurts the squad and an acquisition may be needed unless Corey Hart can return healthy and to form.  Otherwise, this team is in a strong position to play .500+ baseball in the first half and potentially better in the second half.  Kyle Lohse may make a huge difference in the second half of the season, once he gets used to his battery mates and is in full pitching shape.

Pirates

I would love to say this team has second place potential but being it has not seeing the positive side on the plus .500 winning percentage, I will take the safe prediction that it will achieve that. Andrew McCutchen proved himself to be a top talent in the game.  The questions from Bucs camp this year revolve around some young talent: Can Pedro Alvarez develop his game past just a 30 HR hitter?; Is Garret Jones really a quality player or one still on the cusp?; Starling Marte is a “star” in the making but will he be able to provide the speed and power balance necessary to upgrade the LF position for years to come starting in 2013?  In the rotation, there is a lot of talent with decent upside but when A.J. Burnett would seem to be unlikely to provide equal 20123 stats to 2012, can newly-acquired Wandy Rodriguez, Jonathan Sanchez and others regain their form and build that rotation towards success?  Time will tell.

Cubs

Like the Padres, this team has a few core pieces in place but a lot of work ahead. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo provide the basis of a foundation that GM Theo Epstein can use to find the necessary pieces around them of long term success.  With an average rotation and suspect bullpen, the Cubs would need some major results out of a lot of players having career years.  Consider this year an evaluation year for the Cubs as their youth mature and the bad contracts reach closer to finality. 

 

And finally, the NL East

I won’t even try to hide my bias here, so let me lead off by saying this is obviously my favorite division in baseball.  In another year or two, I believe this will become the toughest division in the majors, although as it stands right now that honor goes to their American League counter-parts.  In 2013 I believe this ill be a very top-heavy division led by three teams, with a huge gap between them and the remaining two.  It always seems like there’s three competitive teams here, though the names may change from year to year, which is why I believe this is annually one of the most exciting divisions to watch.  So without further ado, let’s proceed with my final divisional prediction…

#1 Washington Nationals

In 2010 I predicted this team would be ready to seriously compete by 2013.  While they did surpass my expectations last year, I believe my prediction was right on target, and this team has a very good shot of getting to the World Series this October.  Let’s start with their rotation…Anchored by Stephen Strasburg, this team boasts the best 1-3 in their rotation in the National League.  It has already been confirmed that, unlike last year, Strasburg will be let completely off the leash and have zero limits on his innings pitched total.  Last year he was striking guys out at the rate of 11 per 9 innings pitched.  Had he not been limited, he would have been around 250 strikeouts by the time the regular season ended, which would have made him best in the bigs in that category.  Gio Gonzalez finished 2012 with the most wins in the majors, the 6th-best ERA in the NL, and 4th-best in strikeouts in the NL; Clearly the move to the National League suited him well.  On most teams he’s the staff ace, in Washington he’s the second-best pitcher.  Then behind him is Jordan Zimmerman, who has had two very solid seasons in a row.  The biggest concern with him is his health, but if he can give the Nats around 30 starts, he’s as good a #3 as any in the majors.  They acquired Dan Haren this off-season, and he worries me a bit.  While the move back to the National League will be good for him, he is already losing some of his velocity as Spring Training has gone on.  They solidified their closer role by signing Rafael Soriano, who has always excelled in that role and saved 42 games for the Yankees last year.  Offensively, this team is stacked with talent.  They went and got Denard Span to play center, who gives them a solid player to man the leadoff position.  Bryce Harper returns for his sophomore year, and will look to build on a great rookie season.  As he will be starting the year with the big league club in 2013, I look for him to hit around 30-35 home runs, and hit around .280-.285 if he can cut back on the strikeouts just a little bit.  This is not going too far out on a limb considering he now has almost a season of experience under his belt.  The Nationals will not run away from this division, but when the last game of the regular season is over they will be on top.

#2 Atlanta Braves

I will save my Braves analysis for tomorrow, when I will be posting a complete preview article on their 2013 season

#3 Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are a team in decline, but they aren’t going away without a fight.  I actually think they will be a little better than many think, and I can see them winning around 80-85 games this year again.  They have a lot of age and health concerns on their team, but they also have a couple of young, talented guys on the roster that can be their future if they are cultivated properly.  They still have their big three in the rotation – Halladay, Hamels, and Lee.  Halladay seems to have been in the league forever, and there’s a ton of mileage on his arm.  His ERA took a huge spike last year, and his Spring isn’t going well either (11ER in 16 IP, only 16K).  Lee had his usual success in 2012, but his lack of run support was absurd.  If his team can figure out how to score some runs with him on the mound, his win totals will go back up to where they used to be.  Hamels is now the best pitcher on the team, and he certainly pitched like it last year.  With more youth on his side than the two previously mentioned, this will be the guy the Phillies move forward with.  If they find themselves falling too far behind in the division I believe they will look to move Lee, and unfortunately be stuck with Halladay as damaged goods.  I can’t say for sure, but I’d be willing to bet the Phillies may have the oldest infield in baseball – not good for positions that rely on athleticism.  Utley and Rollins – when healthy – have now become  .250 hitters, and Howard is even worse (although he can still hit around 30 home runs).  Newly-acquired Micheal Young becomes their best infielder, and even he has seen his numbers decline over the last four seasons.  Their outfield is where their youth movement lies.  All three – John Mayberry, Ben Revere, and Domonic Brown – have an average age of 26, and two of the three will be starting their first year on a major league roster.  Revere has legit speed, registering 40 swipes and nearly a .300 average in just 124 games last season.  Brown will take over right field full-time, but he will need to cut back on his strikeouts.  If he can do that, he’s got 25-home run potential, and he’s even displayed some speed at different levels in the minors to go along with it.  I’m predicting this team will be sellers at the deadline, but with the Mets and Marlins behind them, they should have no problem finishing third.

#4 New York Mets

Talk about a team full of question marks.  Will David Wright, Daniel Murphy, Shaun Marcum, and Ike Davis stay healthy?  Will Marlon Byrd have a career renaissance?  Will Matt Harvey live up to his potential in the grueling marathon known as the baseball season?  Who will be playing center field by year’s end?  As a Braves fan I relish in the opportunity to tear this team apart, but to be honest I do feel sorry for them.  I don’t know if it’s a curse, bad luck, or bad karma…but this team certainly goes through it all.  This weekend it was made official that Santana is having season-ending (and likely career-ending) surgery on his shoulder again.  Wright and Murphy both suffered an intercostal injury this Spring, and the Mets are holding their breath that those injuries won’t linger throughout the season – although both will be starting on opening day.  Ike Davis has all the potential in the world, but has a hard time staying healthy.  Last year he finally managed to play the whole year, but produced a career-low batting average (by a long shot) while still hitting 32 home runs.  In my mind there are two players on this roster to keep an eye on: Matt Harvey and Jordany Valdespin.  Valdespin is currently listed third on the depth chart in center behind Collin Cowgill and Byrd, which I can’t really figure out.  Byrd is the starting left fielder, so for all intents and purposes let’s slide Valdespin up to the backup role.  The two have about the same amount of major league experience in terms of at-bats, but Valdespin has more speed potential, higher batting average potential, and he strikes out less at the major league level. Cowgill may have a little more power, but it’s not like he hits the stitches off the ball, and Valdespin does have a little pop.  To me Valdespin has the bigger ceiling, and he’s the guy I will pick to finish the year in Center.  Harvey will be this team’s ace in 2014.  From what I’m hearing they will not place an innings limit on him, but in a year when this team is not expected to compete, that just seems foolish to me.  Last year he started 10 games of the big league club and struck out 70 in almost 60 innings of work with an ERA in the mid-2’s.  He may have a hard time finding wins due to a lack of run support, but I bet he continues the success he had last year at this level.  This is a year of evaluation for the Mets, but if they can pick the right guys to keep and make a few crafty trades, they may find relevance – in a tough division – by the 2015 season.

#5 Miami Marlins

This team is not good.  I know, that’s some top-notch analysis.  In my mind, this is one of the most poorly-run franchises in Major League Baseball.  They win the World Series in 1997, then sell off all their talent.  They win the World Series again in 2003, then sell off all their talent.  Then in 2012 they get a new Stadium, City, and logo…they spend millions of dollars on free agents, and bring in a hot-head manager….then lose 93 games and sell off all their talent once more.  Now they head into 2013 with a roster that rivals my opinion of the Padres.  They have no reliable starting pitchers, a guy closing who has never done it before, and the only offensive threats in the lineup are Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Pierre, and Placido Polanco – who will be 37 heading into his 16th major league season.  This team is capable of losing around 110 games this year, which would put them on pace to compete with the Astros as the worst team in the Majors.  If the Padres are the triple-A team of the MLB, the Marlins are the double-A team.  This time last year it looked like this franchise was heading it’s way back toward post-season contention, but just one year later it looks like that is still years away.

NL West

The NL West posts three very good teams and two very questionable ones.  Any of the top three teams could win the division with a few positive breaks however, I think the true testament to success will be found in continuity of the ball club and not in the spending sprees of its squad.  With that said, let’s look at my 2013 predictions and allow the game to tell the tale.

NL West

D’Backs (92 games)

Giants (90 games)

Dodgers (85 games)

Rockies (75 games)

Padres (74 games)

Arizona

When it comes to a complete team, I will give Arizona  the leg up.  Its pitching staff is well-rounded and filled with talent.  It’s line-up, while seeing its best hitting talent traded to Atlanta, may have found an easy way to replace the .280 average 17HR/67RBI/18 of Upton last year through Parra/Eaton and Cody Ross.  Meanwhile, they acquired pieces to continue to be good for years to come.  As there is a lot of talent in this division, the best opportunity to be had is by the D’Backs using their talent and having all the pieces together for success.

Giants

This very strong Giants ball club will always be a threat in the playoffs with its dynamic pitching Cain and Bumgarner are proving to the top-tier pitching talent and a resurgence of Tim Lincecum could be a deadly three-sum a top the rotation.  My biggest concerns with this team is found in its outfield.  Hunter Pence is the best hitting OF of the group and defensively they will provide solid defense.  However,  I must examine the significant contract Angel Pagan received and how his bat (along with Gregor Blanco’s) will make an impact with regards to the lack of power on this club.  If Sandoval and Brandon Belt can manage 25-30 HR each, maybe they will get by.  Otherwise I see a lot of gap hitting and manufacturing runs which always makes me believe that in a season stretch the big hitting teams of the NL will get the best of them enough to hold them from a division crown.

Dodgers

I think it has been proven that when you spend a lot of money, all it does is sell tickets until it fails.  The Dodgers have a serious amount of talent on its roster and no one can deny that.  Many people have the Dodgers as the winner of the NL West or a close second.  I am putting this team third because I will need to be proven wrong that injuries won’t hurt this team enough to basically miss the playoffs.  Crawford, Kemp and Either, while all great talents, have had their share of injury issues that have held them back in their career.  To expect 150 games out of all three of these guys is frankly ridiculous to demand.  Hanley Ramirez has already made his extended trip to the DL. Is Greinke’s elbow or Beckett’s …everything gonna last long enough for him to be productive.  What is the situation with the bullpen/closer role?  There is just a lot of questions regarding potential that with most teams would not even put them at .500 but with the Dodgers, there range is very broad based on the talent they have acquired.  And if somehow, the Dodgers can acquire a player like Robinson Cano by the trade deadline (may not happen but you never know), then all bets are off.

Rockies

Let’s face it, to pitch in Colorado is just cruel.  Your numbers look terrible and shopping for a contract is mighty tough to do leaving it for another club.  That is why the Rockies carry some great bats and hope for the best.  The Rockies will be better this year.  Rutledge and the return of Troy Tulowitizki provide a lot of upside in the middle of the diamond.  Other excellent hitters like Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Helton and the young and promising catcher Wilin Rosario will give this lineup a run-production jolt.  Couple Dexter Fowler and Cuddyer to set the table for production and this ballclub looks decent…and then there is the pitching.  If the Rockies can find an average pitching staff, the club will be better than most people think…but that task may be a little too much to ask for.

Padres

This team is a few years away.  It’s best player, Chase Headley, is not likely to return to action until mid-May at the earliest. The other seven starters all have question marks.  As Yonder Alonso is a player I do think has some talent, he power numbers last year were very discouraging.  Cameron Maybin does not only seem overly-hyped in the young career but, to me, he is incredible awkward and devoid of refined athletic ability. San Diego has some pitching options in its rotation which may help them stay close in games but even if their bullpen keeps them close still, run production will be suspect. 

 

It is safe to say that if you could combine the pitching of San Diego with the hitting of Colorado (plus a healthy Chase Headley) maybe then could these friars of the great mountains compete.

 

The NL Central, 2013 Edition

The NL Central has been a fairly easy division to predict over the last decade.  The Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates have been mostly bad, the Reds have been coming on strong the last couple years, and the Cardinals always seem to be in contention.  Things have been changing lately, however, as the Reds won the division a year ago with the second-best record in the national league.  The Pirates have been improving, and fell just 4 wins short of breaking their 20 year losing-season streak last year.  Could this be the year it finally comes to an end?  Can the Reds repeat as division champions and match their 97-win performance?  Will the Brewers and Cubs have any impact on the outcome of this division?  Here’s how I think it goes down…

 

#1 Cincinnati Reds

Since I expect a few more wins from three of the other four teams in this division compared to last year, I’m going to say the Reds will have a hard time winning 97 again; I will put it more around the 90-92.  I actually had a hard time deciding who would take #1 and #2 here between the Reds and (spoiler alert) Cardinals, but ultimately decided to go with Cincinnati here because they have a little more talent on the infield, a slightly better rotation, and less question marks.  Homer Bailey FINALLY stayed healthy for an entire season last year, and it paid off with solid production.  I wouldn’t count on him starting 33 games again this year, but if he can at least give them a solid 28+, he’s proven he has the talent to get the job done.  Latos started the season in 2012 horrifically, leaving many to question if he was really the young high-upside guy everyone thought he was, or just the product of VERY pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  He adjusted to the new park, and had a fantastic second half, which I have no reason to doubt he will resume this year.  I love Cueto at the top of the rotation, and Arroyo will give you what he always does.  He doesn’t rely on pitch speed to be successful, so his age doesn’t bother me.  Perhaps the best off-season move the Reds made this year had nothing to do with trades, free-agent signing, or contract extensions…I absolutely love that they put Chapman back in the closer role, where he belongs.  Good luck scoring runs in the ninth inning against these guys.  One player I really like on this team is Zach Cozart.  He’s got the talent to be a 5-tool player, but he strikes out way too much, which drives his batting average down.  He stole 30 bases in the minors 3 years ago so I know he has speed, but the Reds hardly ever rely on it.  He’s got above-average power for a shortstop, and if he can manage a little more plate discipline this year it could pay dividends.  So far this Spring he is striking out once every 6 at-bats, as opposed to once every 4 at-bats in 2012.  It’s mild improvement in a much shorter sample size, but something worth keeping an eye on.  Ludwig finally had a productive season after a couple years of bouncing around the league, and the Reds rewarded him with a contract extension.  In this park I see no reason why he cant repeat a .275-.280 avg and mid-20’s for home runs.  The Reds also added Shin-Soo Choo, who brings a little bit of everything to the table if he can stay healthy.  Plus with guys like Votto and Bruce in the lineup, this team will have no problem scoring runs and propelling to another division title.

#2 St. Louis Cardinals

Here’s a team that made a Cinderella-type run to a World Series Championship two years ago, and won the inaugural Wild Card Playoff game against the Braves last year to get into the post season.  The team is very well built, with talent all over the place.  Their closer situation worries me a bit…Mott is currently sidelined with a strained elbow, and elbow injuries always make me nervous with pitchers – particularly the hard-throwing ones.  Mitchell Boggs will fill in for him, but he doesn’t throw the strikeouts I like from closers.  Wainwright is a solid ace, and Jaime Garcia is good when healthy.  Lance Lynn had a phenomenal first half last year, but finished terribly.  It was his first full season in the rotation, so I speculate his arm got tired; I will be very interested to see how he does in season #2.  If Beltran can stay healthy (which he managed to do last year since he wasn’t wearing a Mets jersey) the Cardinals have an outfield that rivals the Braves as best in the league.  Their infield is inexperienced, but I love Allen Craig and I think Pete Kozma has legitimate upside.  With Lynn, Beltran, Garcia, and Mott as major question marks I cannot put this team above the Reds, but if it all works out this could be a tight division race in September.

#3 Milwaukee Brewers

One thing I didn’t realize until I started researching for this post, and it took me quite a bit by surprise, is that the Brewers have the 10th-highest payroll in the Majors.  Umm, what?!  A team that has Alex Gonzalez at first, Jean Segura at shortstop, Carlos Gomez in Center, and Norichika Aoki in right field has a payroll just shy of $100 million?!  They all may be decent players, but not the caliber of players I’d expect on a $100 million roster.  I placed this team in third place instead of fourth or fifth for a couple reasons – and believe me, none of them were just mentioned.  I love the one-two punch of Gallardo-Lohse at the front end of the rotation.  I was surprised it took as long as it did for Lohse to get signed by somebody, but finally the Brewers conceded and gave up their 17th overall draft pick to get him.  Behind them is Marco Estrada, who I think will be a big contributor for this club in 2013.  If the Brewers can score enough runs, they’ve got an elite guy in Axford to close out games.  Now let’s shift to the offense.  Obviously Ryan Braun – my 6-year man crush – is a stud.  What worries me with him is a looming suspension.  Reports say MLB is going hard after Braun and Alex Rodriguez in connection with the Biogenesis Clinic.  Braun beat the system before, I wouldn’t blame MLB for wanting to nail him to the wall this time (although I am still in the minority that question the validity of his “positive” test, but that’s a whole other topic of discussion).  If he’s out for 50 games at any point this season, their outfield is in trouble.  The infield has question marks written all over it as well…Aramis Ramirez is playing on bad knees, which is bad news at his age.  Rickie Weeks strikes out way too much to only be a 20-HR guy, so if he’s going to continue batting in the low-mid .200’s and striking out around 150 times a year, he better get his home runs back up around 30, like he did back in 2010.  If this team is going to spend this much money, they need to have a better roster than what they’ve got.  Teams like the Braves, Reds, and Rays – just to name a few – have a significantly lower payroll, and much more talent and success.  Get your stuff together, Milwaukee.

#4 Pittsburgh Pirates

Just when it looked like their 20-year losing streak was going to come to an end, they fell short.  This year I think they can come close again, but eventually fall into the same fate as 2012.  Outside of Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez this offense doesn’t have a whole lot of talent, and the rotation has question marks and depth concerns.  I don’t trust AJ Burnett, but he was surprisingly effective in his return to the National League last year.  I’d like to see him do it again before I have any confidence in him, but maybe he just needed to get out of the New York City spotlight.  I like the addition of Wandy Rodriguez as the #2, and James McDonald is a serviceable 3.  If the Pirates can find a way to score runs, this staff is capable of keeping games close as long as it stays healthy.  Russell Martin adds a little pop from behind the plate, but he is obviously way past his prime, so anything more than 15 home runs should be considered a gift in this park.  With McCutchen and Alvarez being the only big run producers, and an average rotation that lacks depth I can see this team winning around 75-80 games, but not much more.

#5 Chicago Cubs

With Houston gone, the Cubs now become the bottom feeders.  But hey, they don’t seem to care, so why should I?  This is a good example of a team that has been bad for a long time and simply doesn’t care, because they still sell out the ballpark.  They brought in Theo Epstein before last year, which showed they may desire to make a move in an upward direction, but it won’t happen this year with this roster.  Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo will be the stars of the team.  Soriano may hit around 20-25 homers, but he’s going to strike out a ton, and he just had is 37th birthday .  I like Samardzija and Garza in the rotation, and nobody else.  Their bullpen is terrible, and Marmol is a wild card in the ninth inning.  It will take time for Epstein’s contributions to be noticed, but for 2013 the Cubs will spend the season at the bottom of the pile.

The AL West (what a mess)

Out of all of the divisions in baseball, I always seem to have the least bit of interest in this race.  However, things are different now…the Astros join the group…yay.  As I do believe the Astros will be a quality franchise again in the not-so-distant future, I feel that this division has the same stories each year over the last few years:  The Angels paying a lot of money for people and underachieving; the Rangers putting together a quality club but cannot consistently put it together for a World Series title; the Marniers having talent but struggling to consistently be relevant in the division; The Athletics playing the “Cinderella” story but never taking the capital gained into the organization  and inflating their payroll to complete with other mid-level market teams.  Now adding the Astros, who never truly re-built their organization from the days of Billy Wagner, the Killer B’s and Ken Caminiti, brings a lot of further uncertainty to the plate.

Here are my 2013 AL West predictions:

AL West

Angels  (96 Wins)

Rangers (86 Wins)

Mariners (86 WIns)

Athletics (82 Wins)

Astros (68 wins)

 

Angels

As Mike Trout erupted on to the scene last year, I do not believe he can take his sophomore performance and out-do his rookie year.  There is a lot of hype and adjustment coming from the future star. He will have an excellent year and I believe he can be one of the leading producers on the club but predicting him to hit .327 with 34 HR, 96 RBIs and 55 SBs seems a little unfair to the guy.  I think Trout can find a home hitting .316 with 30 HR, 100-110 RBIs and maybe 25-30SB.

If you recall the 2012 Angels experience, Pujols, Hendrick and other players did not even hit their weight for the first month or two of the season.  I believe you will see more production to start the year out of the corner OFs, first base, second base and DH combined in April of this year than April of last year. This will help them get off to a better start and set the tone. Replacing Torii Hunter (a formidable professional- but an aging one) with Josh Hamilton in RF is an excellent talent replacement.   With a quality rotation and decent bullpen (every bullpen has some issue in April), the Angels should win this division.  Their AL dominance will still remain to be seen.

Rangers

As the Angels gain Josh Hamilton, the Rangers lose him.  For the Rangers however, they might be a little glad to see him go for the price tag he commanded.  The organization seemed like it wanted to move in another direction from the challenging situation of Josh Hamilton.  It is amazing how talented he can be and yet how a relapse of his alcohol or drug use could make his multimillion dollar investment into a non-producing element.  The Rangers move forward with young talent in the OF with Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry.  As they are missing Beyond Beltre, there is an absence of a strong and consistent power bat in the lineup.  As “playing small ball” and quality pitching will be what is necessary for success, the Rangers would only be one move away to acquire available power talent and lift this team back into a serious contender.  The Rangers do have the pieces to make such a trade and with a notoriously-weak hitting first baseman in Mitch Moreland, I am sure talent will be available to acquire one, should it be needed.  In the meantime, acquisitions Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski will look to provide gap and HR power with Kinsler, Cruz and Murphy. 

Marniers

Health is the biggest issue for this club but if they can put that together, this could be a year of resurgence in Seattle. Morse, Gutierrez and Saunders provide and interesting and dynamic OF of 2013.  There is a lot of talent within that group and, if healthy, could carry this ball club into relevance.   The Mariners infield feature three more players who can truly make all the difference in Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero.  If these guys play to their ability, the Mariners will have a serious offensive team.  My hope is that Justin Smoak either plays to his potential or is sent to the minors because one can only wait so long for maturity.  My best wishes to him. 

What scares me about this team is its starting pitching.  I am not scared of its depth as I think as it grows that it will be strong.  My fear in my bold prediction is in Felix Hernandez….  (I know what you might be saying…WHAT THE &#%@?!)  Signing such a big contract will have some players rest on their laurels a tad.  I believe that King Felix will not do so and that is where the taxed arm of Felix Hernandez may become a issue.  My fear with King Felix is the one that I had with Roy Halladay and that looks to be coming true. My unfortunate prediction is that Felix Hernandez will either be shut down or have arm surgery by the end of the 2014 season.  The question is two fold:  Am I right?  and  Can he make it through?  If he is fine, I will hold my strong prediction.  If he is not, They will be moved down to fourth in the standings.

Athletics

It is not that the Athletics are bad or do not have talent.  They absolutely do.  They just irritate me.  I cannot run a baseball league like an under achieving MLB the show franchise and torment myself as a fan of the game.  I feel like the owners of the club just wants to profit and do not care about the product.  As many owners are like that in the sport, it just is so obvious in Oakland that it blows me away.   The A’s have taken a step back in their rotation and as it will prove to be decent, it could have taken a step forward in adding talent…not losing Brandon McCarthy.  I am not sold that Josh Reddick will duplicate his 2012 stats and luckily Yoenis Cespedes has such high-upside, he may be able to cover it. Adding Lowrie is helpful but to how much of an extent?  Too many questions for me to endorse this club.  Usually organization who have a strong core of talent make additions to it to build upon success, excite the fan base and look to improve.  The A’s “Moneyball” practice is more like pulling of a Valparaiso-like upset than creating an established and winning organization.

Astros

All I am going to say about this Astros is that this is a year of evaluation.  The organization does have talent within it.  The question is which talent will make itself the building blocks to the future of the organization, which ones will be traded for more puzzle pieces and which others will fall by the waste-side.  My one player to watch is Brett Wallace.  This is an athletic and strong kid who has some potential to be the first real first baseman for this club since Jeff Bagwell.  I would love to see him put on a show in the first half and get the buzz going on a player that will be in a majority of your fantasy squads by years’ end (shameless fantasy plug being notated). I would expect that good personal years from Bud Norris or Lucas Harrell should attract trade talk at the trade deadline in July.

 

 

A More Intriguing NL West in 2013

The NL West as been a division that has gone mostly unnoticed in the last decade (for the most part), primarily because they simply haven’t put great quality teams on the field as a division.  Each year there seems to be one stand-out, then the rest ranging from mediocre to bad.  I believe we will see an improvement in the NL West in 2013 as a whole.

#1 Los Angeles Dodgers

Here is a team that pushed in all their chips around the trade deadline last year, and expects to make a strong push for the World Series this year.  After years of mediocrity the ownership group led by none other than Irving “Magic” Johnson has shown in one quick year that mediocrity isn’t going to be good enough.  This is an historic franchise with a proud tradition, and things are about to change for the Dodgers.  I don’t believe they are clear favorites in the National League, but they are toward the top of the list.  They have the best pitcher in the National league to anchor their rotation, and Greinke is as reliable a pitcher as you can get from a health standpoint, but beyond them are a few question marks.  Can Beckett return to form?  The move to the national league will certainly help, and he is moving to a MUCH more pitcher-friendly ballpark; In 2012 Fenway Park ranked #3, Dodger Stadium ranked #25 in runs scored.  Billingsly has been somewhat reliable for them, but his strikeout numbers have come down considerably in the last few years.  And what will the Korean-born Ryu bring to the table?  Offensively, this team is more than capable of scoring runs. With Kemp in the outfield, Ramirez at shortstop, and Adrian Gonzalez at first base they have three top-tier players at their respective positions.  They don’t have great depth at short, which will cause problems until Hanley returns from injury (it appears the organization is losing faith in Dee Gordon as they have already sent him to AAA).  Crawford in left is a concern, but if he can stay healthy, he may see more success at the plate in the National League.  They signed Brandon League to be their closer, but I’m not a fan…he pitches to contact, and that’s just not something I look for in a closer.  If he doesn’t work out, however, they have the capable Kenley Jansen waiting for the call.

#2 San Francisco Giants

Division winners from a year ago, this is a very well-built team that will win a lot of games for the foreseeable future.  The rotation is solid, even with Barry Zito contributing admirably as the fifth starter in his 12th MLB season.  Tim Lincecum still looks lost on the mound, and has yet to regain his velocity.  2013 is not looking good for him, as he has given up 13 earned runs in just 10.2 innings of work this month.  Its quite possible Zito could have a better year than him by the end of the season – and that’s exactly what happened last year.  Just two short seasons ago who would have ever predicted such a fate?  I never liked his mechanics, and pegged him as a prime candidate for Tommy John surgery at some point in his career.  I can see him taking a stint in the minors for some time this year to try to get things right.  The Giants have a solid closer, and a good mix of young and veteran talent around the diamond.  The ballpark is horrendous on hitters, but away from home this team has a lot of pop in their lineup between Posey, Sandoval, Pence, and Belt.  Oh yeah, that Belt guy will be the team’s MVP this year.  No disrespect to his teammate and defending NL MVP Buster Posey, but I truly believe Belt’s time has come.  He will finally see the field on a daily basis, which I believe was his biggest problem last year.  Young hitters need as many at-bats as possible to get comfortable and make adjustments.  The odds were staked against him last year while playing sporadically.  He has been tearing up the cactus league this month, hitting .448 with 8 home runs in 67 at-bats, so I will go ahead and become a believer.  The division race between the Dodgers and Giants should go down to the final few games as I believe both teams are constructed extremely well.  Both teams have a lot of talent on both sides, but I’m going to give the slight talent edge to the Dodgers, and predict the Giants take a Wild Card spot about 2 games behind the Dodgers.

#3 Arizona Diamondbacks

This is an interesting team, and they will be the reason the Dodgers and Giants won’t be able to pull away from each other.  The Diamondbacks will be like that annoying third party candidate in political elections that has no shot of winning, but steals votes from the other two primary candidates.  While they aren’t quite put together to win the division yet, they are good enough to hang with the best of ’em.  They’ve got a young stud in Goldschmidt, and great veteran talent in Montero, Kubel, Hill, and the newly acquired Martin Prado.  Their pitching staff is their biggest flaw, which will not bode well in that hitter-friendly ballpark of theirs.  Brandon McCarthy seems to be on the Disabled List more often than not, and Cahill is average at best.  Wade Miley has some promising skill, but I’d like to see more of him before giving him my vote of confidence.  As a Braves fan I will say this with utmost confidence – the Arizona Diamondbacks screwed up royally in their Upton trade by choosing to take Randall Delgado over Julio Teheran, because the Braves gave them the choice.  Delgado has two pitches, and projects as a mid-level fifth starter, while Teheran has ace-type material.  Last year’s stats may have scared the Diamondbacks away from Teheran, but he altered his mechanics slightly, added a new pitch, and here is his Spring line: 26 IP, 1.04 ERA, 3 wins, 0.62 WHIP, 9BB, 35K.  More on Teheran in my Atlanta Braves preview.

#4 Colorado Rockies

The Rockies can be a bit hard to predict, because usually when they do well nobody sees it coming.  They have an above-average offense that certainly plays well at home, but on the road this team struggles more.  Team veteran and one of the two biggest stars on the roster, Troy Tulowitzki, has a hard time staying healthy every year.  He’s only played in more than 150 games twice in his career, and the Rockies will need better than that if they want to achieve success.  Outside of him and fellow stud Carlos Gonzalez, things get a bit shaky.  Dexter Fowler, who has historically been a perennial disappointment, finally put together a decent season last year – now let’s see if he can do it again.  Helton and Cuddyer are the old men of the group, both past their prime, and Cuddyer is also an annual DL frequent-flyer.  It’s hard to pass judgement on any of their pitchers, because nobody pitches well in Colorado.  The bottom line is the three teams I believe will be above them are just so much better that the Rockies don’t have much of a shot at success right now.  They won 64 games last year, and I can see an improvement of no more than ten wins at best.

#5 San Diego Padres

Here is the minor league team of the National League.  There is a ton of young talent – Yonder Alonso, Everth Cabrera, Cameron Maybin – but this is a terrible ballpark for young hitters, and there isn’t enough veteran leadership to guide them.  Carlos Quentin and Cody Ransom are their veterans, so that speaks for itself.  Their rotation is actually halfway respectable, with Volquez and Richards at the top followed by Stults and Marquis.  It’s certainly not a championship-caliber rotation, but I do like it better than the Rockies.  The Padres seem to be in a perpetual re-building phase, and they are still a long way off from being taken seriously.  Last year they had the lowest team salary in the Majors, so it’s no mystery why things are the way they are in San Diego.  It’s sad, and can easily be fixed with a salary cap in the sport, but I won’t get started on that….

The AL West in 2013

The AL West has been a two-team division for a long time.  Led by the Rangers and Angels, the other two teams have been left in their dust, pushed around like somebody’s little bother.  Last year the Oakland Athletics surprised everybody and won the division against the odds.  Will they be able to repeat their success in 2013?  What, if any, impact will the Astros now have on the division?  Can the Angels rebound from a disappointing season last year?  Let’s dive in…

 

#1) Los Angeles Angels

Wow.  What a horrible disappointment this team was in 2012.  A year ago they seemed to be World Series favorites, yet failed to even make it to the playoffs.  I’ll be totally honest – they were my pick to win the World Series last year.  That stunning turn of events, however, will not dissuade me from picking them once again.  This is a team with more talent on their roster than any team in major league baseball, in my opinion, but they just never seemed to find their groove.  I thought they might make a second-half run, but their win totals after the all-star break weren’t much better than before, which allowed Oakland and Texas to seize control.  I’m hoping that with an entire off-season and Spring to gel together and let what happened in 2012 sink in, they will meet my expectations.  Hamilton will miss time, probably a month or so.  But they have Mark Trumbo to back him up…and all he did was hit 32 bombs and nearly 100 RBI’s last year.  2012 AL Rookie of the Year Mike Trout will return and try to avoid the infamous sophomore slump, which I believe he will do.  The kid is the definition of “5-tool player”, and when you have the kind of talent he possesses, I just don’t see the slump happening.  Bourjos will start in Center, and I look for him to have a breakout year.  He doesn’t hit for a lot of power, but he has what it takes to hit for a high batting average, and he has the wheels to steal some bases.  Some were predicting his breakout last year and it didn’t happen, but I believe this is his year after having a little more experience under his belt – not to mention he is having a great Spring.  Pujols is certainly on the decline, but in a down year he still hit 30 HR and batted .285.  Look for those numbers to come down slightly, but any team will gladly take a reliable .280, 25 HR first baseman.  The infield has a typical speed/average combination comprised of capable, reliable players, and the rotation is very good…with the exception of Tommy Hanson, who is completely shot at this point in his career.  But if he’s you’re fifth starter, you’re not in bad shape.  The one hole on this roster, albeit short term, is the Closer position.  With Madson still trying to come back from injury, it looks as if Ernesto Frieri will get the opportunity for saves.  So far this Spring he’s give up 7 runs in 9 innings, so that’s not promising.

#2 Texas Rangers

Perhaps this off-season’s biggest free agent was Josh Hamilton, and this year he won’t be wearing a Rangers jersey.  To make matters worse for Texas – they didn’t replace him.  Their outfield is considerably weaker as a result, with Nelson Cruz being the teams biggest long-ball threat.  David Murphy is a nice player, but he doesn’t really exceed at anything.  He’ll give you batting average in the .280-.300 range, 10-15 home runs, and about 10 stolen bases…so he is certainly will not make up for the loss of Hamilton.  Playing Center Field is rookie Leonys Martin, who has only 54 major league at bats in his career.  The Rangers also lost Michael Young and Mike Napoli to free agency this year, both of which were key players in this team’s success the last couple years.  They did, however, sign long-time White Sox catcher AJ Pierzynski, whom I really like.  Always consistent, and last year showed a little more power than is typical of him.  Furthermore, he is always healthy; The last time he played in less than 130 games was 2001 – which is great for a catcher.  I question their rotation a bit, although Darvish did surpass my expectations last year.  Even if he improves upon his 2012 performance, the rest of that rotation is inconsistent.  They can’t seem to decide if they want Ogando in the rotation or the bullpen, and the switching back and forth will hurt him…just ask Joba Chamberlain.  Matt Harrison is alright, but I just don’t see him being the ace of the staff.  Overall I believe this team has taken a step back from last year, but in the end they still have plenty of talent to secure the second Wild Card seed in the American League.

#3 Seattle Mariners

My sentiment about Felix Hernandez is the same as my partner’s with regard to Joe Mauer….poor King Felix.  The things this guy could accomplish on a good team are beyond comprehension.  To win the AL Cy Young Award in 2010 despite having only a 13-12 record just goes to show how good his stuff is.  I would love to see him on a competitive team going up against the likes of Verlander, Kershaw, and Strasburg; What a show that would be!  To their credit, they have improved over the last couple of years.  They have improved their win total in each of the last 3 seasons, and this year they have added the likes of Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse, and they have a more experienced Jesus Montero.  The rotation beyond Hernandez, however, will hold this team back.  Iwakuma was good last year, and he’s having a respectable Spring this year, but he had only 16 starts after being moved out of the bullpen.  He relies on his groundballs, and Seattle doesn’t exactly have a bunch of all-stars on the infield – although I am a fan of Dustin Ackley.  I’m always skeptical of Japanese pitchers that come here to play mid-career, so I’ll take a wait-and-see approach with him.  They are in need of at least two respectable starters before they can be considered any kind of a threat.  But hey, the A’s surprised people last year with a less-talented roster, so anything can happen in this wonderful sport!

#4 Oakland Athletics

How this team won 94 games last year is beyond me.  Maybe I would be better off not betting against them, but their success last year is why I’m placing them above the Astros in this division.  I honestly just cannot explain it, it doesn’t make sense.  This is an extremely young team that spends no money.  The veteran on this team is Coco Crisp, so that says a lot.  Josh Reddick played out of his mind, more than tripling his career high in home runs.  Yoenis Cespedes burst onto the scene, like most thought he would, and he will be the guy this team builds around until it comes time to pay the man…at which point he will more than likely be in another uniform.  There are worse outfielders than Crisp, and he will generate runs with his legs.  This team is filled with a bunch of average-at-best players (except Cespedes) that overachieved in 2012.  I do not see a scenario where they even come close to taking the division, especially since I expect the Angels to be much more competitive.  I will not be surprised if this team competes with the Astros for real estate in the basement.

#5 Houston Astros

Hands-down the worst team in the majors.  New league, new division, new logo, same crappy team.  They have only three names even worth mentioning on their entire roster: Bud Norris, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Pena; Altuve being the only real skilled player that I believe in.  He hits for average, has tremendous speed, and his bat has a little pop in it.  Pena is the same guy hes always been – good for about 25 homers and a batting average that Dan Uggla can relate to.  The bottom line is this team is years away from serious competition, and they will go through a transition period.  They move to a slightly less competitive division, but a much tougher league, so they will probably come close to matching their 55 wins of a year ago.  The biggest impact this team will have on the division is to give the Rangers and Angels a few more easy wins.

Ricky Romero

See this guy? I know a club who should trade for him now…for the right price of course…

More tomorrow.

The AL Central

The Detroit Tigers show no reason to give up their prowess in 2013 .  Equipped with a balanced offensive attack, a strong pitching rotation and a bullpen that has closer options within the Major League roster (although one is not set at this point to a level of comfort), the Tigers are gearing up for a 2013 AL Central crown.  Is this for certain?  If it was, there would be no need to play 162 games.

Here are my AL Central Predictions:

1. Tigers  (94 wins)
2. Indians (84 wins)
3. Royals (84 wins)
4. White Sox (83 wins)
5. Twins (72 wins)

Tigers

Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez lead the charge for one of the best assembled rotations in the American League.  The fact that the Tigers will entertain a late spring trade of Rick Porcello speaks to the rotation strength.  The starting lineup showcases Austin Jackson a top of the lineup that has challenged himself to build upon last year’s performance with the addition of 25 total steals.  Fielder, Cabrera, the return of Victor Martinez and the addition of Torii Hunter gives the lineup an additional offensive boost that when coupled with that pitching staff should give this team the opportunity to win a bulk of their games.  And don’t worry…they will find their closer.

Indians

I will drink the Kool-Aid.  Bring in the veteran manager who believes in the basics, team play, motivation and trusting his veterans to lead.  Then bring in some high priced free agents with the youth of the Indians organization and the dynamic of the Indians goes from blah to quiet contender.  I believe the lineup is filled with speed, defense and offensive potential to drive in runs and make the summer and exciting one for Cleveland.  The starting pitching staff needs to be respectable to hit this projection.  This means health and hitting potential.  As Ubaldo Jiminez looks lost on the mound, pitchers like Zack McAllister and Justin Masterson will need to lead in 2013.  Pitchers like Scott Kazmir, Carlos Carrasco and the infamous Trevor Bauer need to be relevant for most of 2013 and just consistently average.  If so, this team can place a second place finish.

Royals

I love this team but they have burned me before…so I will play it conservative as a tie for a weak AL Central win total.  The Royals have Moustakas, Hosmer and Perez lead the youth movement in good ole KC.  Alex Gordon has been growing to be a consistent upper level player in the game.  Players like Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Greg Holland are stars on the edge of breaking out to the national stage.  The additions of James Shields and Wade Davis bring strength to a previosuly-weak rotation.  This is the development of the 2013 Royals.  As I feel the Indians have more of an established presence to the roster, the Royals may be one year away (with further commitment to talent) towards a major step forward in the division.

White Sox

May people pick the White Sox better than this but for some reason, I do not see a positive step forward from 2012.  I do not believe this is attributed to 2nd year coach Robin Ventura but in the transition of the White Sox. As a club moving forward from a team of veterans to a team of youth, an evaluation year seems to be the most likely outcome in this brave overview on the White Sox. The outfield may be the brightest point on the club.  As Paul Konerko has been a formidable and consistent veteran, I cannot foresee Konerko to continue to hit his season averages over the last 6-8 years.  As Gordon Beckham, Alexi Ramirez and Jeff Keppinger make the rest of the infield, there are a lot of question marks to the contributions they can provide versus their other division mates.  Can Adam Dunn hit 35+ homeruns but hit over .220 and not strike out 150+ times?  Can Chris Sale and Jake Peavy match their 2012 performances?  Is the rest of the bullpen a diamond in the rough or just rough?  Will Addison Reed be the closer all year?  As the team could perform to potential and do significantly better than I project, I just feel the team will need this year to sort out its talent and reshape its team with consistent and proven talent…one that has less chances.

Twins

Poor Joe Mauer.  This guy loves Minnesota so him asking for a trade won’t happen.  However, I bet he is hoping that the Twins make the playoffs again before his contract is up.  Willingham and Morneau need strong 2013 campaigns to inspire the ball club to challenge other clubs.  Is the Plouffe kid for real?  Is Mike Pelfrey really listed as the potential #2-#3 starter?!  Will Glen Perkins (who seems talented) get 30 chances…to even save a game?!  Yikes Yikes Yikes.  I question if there is a fan I feel worse for than a Twins fan… Oh wait, that’s right….I am a Mets fan.  My shared condolences Minnesota.