A More Intriguing NL West in 2013

The NL West as been a division that has gone mostly unnoticed in the last decade (for the most part), primarily because they simply haven’t put great quality teams on the field as a division.  Each year there seems to be one stand-out, then the rest ranging from mediocre to bad.  I believe we will see an improvement in the NL West in 2013 as a whole.

#1 Los Angeles Dodgers

Here is a team that pushed in all their chips around the trade deadline last year, and expects to make a strong push for the World Series this year.  After years of mediocrity the ownership group led by none other than Irving “Magic” Johnson has shown in one quick year that mediocrity isn’t going to be good enough.  This is an historic franchise with a proud tradition, and things are about to change for the Dodgers.  I don’t believe they are clear favorites in the National League, but they are toward the top of the list.  They have the best pitcher in the National league to anchor their rotation, and Greinke is as reliable a pitcher as you can get from a health standpoint, but beyond them are a few question marks.  Can Beckett return to form?  The move to the national league will certainly help, and he is moving to a MUCH more pitcher-friendly ballpark; In 2012 Fenway Park ranked #3, Dodger Stadium ranked #25 in runs scored.  Billingsly has been somewhat reliable for them, but his strikeout numbers have come down considerably in the last few years.  And what will the Korean-born Ryu bring to the table?  Offensively, this team is more than capable of scoring runs. With Kemp in the outfield, Ramirez at shortstop, and Adrian Gonzalez at first base they have three top-tier players at their respective positions.  They don’t have great depth at short, which will cause problems until Hanley returns from injury (it appears the organization is losing faith in Dee Gordon as they have already sent him to AAA).  Crawford in left is a concern, but if he can stay healthy, he may see more success at the plate in the National League.  They signed Brandon League to be their closer, but I’m not a fan…he pitches to contact, and that’s just not something I look for in a closer.  If he doesn’t work out, however, they have the capable Kenley Jansen waiting for the call.

#2 San Francisco Giants

Division winners from a year ago, this is a very well-built team that will win a lot of games for the foreseeable future.  The rotation is solid, even with Barry Zito contributing admirably as the fifth starter in his 12th MLB season.  Tim Lincecum still looks lost on the mound, and has yet to regain his velocity.  2013 is not looking good for him, as he has given up 13 earned runs in just 10.2 innings of work this month.  Its quite possible Zito could have a better year than him by the end of the season – and that’s exactly what happened last year.  Just two short seasons ago who would have ever predicted such a fate?  I never liked his mechanics, and pegged him as a prime candidate for Tommy John surgery at some point in his career.  I can see him taking a stint in the minors for some time this year to try to get things right.  The Giants have a solid closer, and a good mix of young and veteran talent around the diamond.  The ballpark is horrendous on hitters, but away from home this team has a lot of pop in their lineup between Posey, Sandoval, Pence, and Belt.  Oh yeah, that Belt guy will be the team’s MVP this year.  No disrespect to his teammate and defending NL MVP Buster Posey, but I truly believe Belt’s time has come.  He will finally see the field on a daily basis, which I believe was his biggest problem last year.  Young hitters need as many at-bats as possible to get comfortable and make adjustments.  The odds were staked against him last year while playing sporadically.  He has been tearing up the cactus league this month, hitting .448 with 8 home runs in 67 at-bats, so I will go ahead and become a believer.  The division race between the Dodgers and Giants should go down to the final few games as I believe both teams are constructed extremely well.  Both teams have a lot of talent on both sides, but I’m going to give the slight talent edge to the Dodgers, and predict the Giants take a Wild Card spot about 2 games behind the Dodgers.

#3 Arizona Diamondbacks

This is an interesting team, and they will be the reason the Dodgers and Giants won’t be able to pull away from each other.  The Diamondbacks will be like that annoying third party candidate in political elections that has no shot of winning, but steals votes from the other two primary candidates.  While they aren’t quite put together to win the division yet, they are good enough to hang with the best of ’em.  They’ve got a young stud in Goldschmidt, and great veteran talent in Montero, Kubel, Hill, and the newly acquired Martin Prado.  Their pitching staff is their biggest flaw, which will not bode well in that hitter-friendly ballpark of theirs.  Brandon McCarthy seems to be on the Disabled List more often than not, and Cahill is average at best.  Wade Miley has some promising skill, but I’d like to see more of him before giving him my vote of confidence.  As a Braves fan I will say this with utmost confidence – the Arizona Diamondbacks screwed up royally in their Upton trade by choosing to take Randall Delgado over Julio Teheran, because the Braves gave them the choice.  Delgado has two pitches, and projects as a mid-level fifth starter, while Teheran has ace-type material.  Last year’s stats may have scared the Diamondbacks away from Teheran, but he altered his mechanics slightly, added a new pitch, and here is his Spring line: 26 IP, 1.04 ERA, 3 wins, 0.62 WHIP, 9BB, 35K.  More on Teheran in my Atlanta Braves preview.

#4 Colorado Rockies

The Rockies can be a bit hard to predict, because usually when they do well nobody sees it coming.  They have an above-average offense that certainly plays well at home, but on the road this team struggles more.  Team veteran and one of the two biggest stars on the roster, Troy Tulowitzki, has a hard time staying healthy every year.  He’s only played in more than 150 games twice in his career, and the Rockies will need better than that if they want to achieve success.  Outside of him and fellow stud Carlos Gonzalez, things get a bit shaky.  Dexter Fowler, who has historically been a perennial disappointment, finally put together a decent season last year – now let’s see if he can do it again.  Helton and Cuddyer are the old men of the group, both past their prime, and Cuddyer is also an annual DL frequent-flyer.  It’s hard to pass judgement on any of their pitchers, because nobody pitches well in Colorado.  The bottom line is the three teams I believe will be above them are just so much better that the Rockies don’t have much of a shot at success right now.  They won 64 games last year, and I can see an improvement of no more than ten wins at best.

#5 San Diego Padres

Here is the minor league team of the National League.  There is a ton of young talent – Yonder Alonso, Everth Cabrera, Cameron Maybin – but this is a terrible ballpark for young hitters, and there isn’t enough veteran leadership to guide them.  Carlos Quentin and Cody Ransom are their veterans, so that speaks for itself.  Their rotation is actually halfway respectable, with Volquez and Richards at the top followed by Stults and Marquis.  It’s certainly not a championship-caliber rotation, but I do like it better than the Rockies.  The Padres seem to be in a perpetual re-building phase, and they are still a long way off from being taken seriously.  Last year they had the lowest team salary in the Majors, so it’s no mystery why things are the way they are in San Diego.  It’s sad, and can easily be fixed with a salary cap in the sport, but I won’t get started on that….