The AL West (what a mess)

Out of all of the divisions in baseball, I always seem to have the least bit of interest in this race.  However, things are different now…the Astros join the group…yay.  As I do believe the Astros will be a quality franchise again in the not-so-distant future, I feel that this division has the same stories each year over the last few years:  The Angels paying a lot of money for people and underachieving; the Rangers putting together a quality club but cannot consistently put it together for a World Series title; the Marniers having talent but struggling to consistently be relevant in the division; The Athletics playing the “Cinderella” story but never taking the capital gained into the organization  and inflating their payroll to complete with other mid-level market teams.  Now adding the Astros, who never truly re-built their organization from the days of Billy Wagner, the Killer B’s and Ken Caminiti, brings a lot of further uncertainty to the plate.

Here are my 2013 AL West predictions:

AL West

Angels  (96 Wins)

Rangers (86 Wins)

Mariners (86 WIns)

Athletics (82 Wins)

Astros (68 wins)

 

Angels

As Mike Trout erupted on to the scene last year, I do not believe he can take his sophomore performance and out-do his rookie year.  There is a lot of hype and adjustment coming from the future star. He will have an excellent year and I believe he can be one of the leading producers on the club but predicting him to hit .327 with 34 HR, 96 RBIs and 55 SBs seems a little unfair to the guy.  I think Trout can find a home hitting .316 with 30 HR, 100-110 RBIs and maybe 25-30SB.

If you recall the 2012 Angels experience, Pujols, Hendrick and other players did not even hit their weight for the first month or two of the season.  I believe you will see more production to start the year out of the corner OFs, first base, second base and DH combined in April of this year than April of last year. This will help them get off to a better start and set the tone. Replacing Torii Hunter (a formidable professional- but an aging one) with Josh Hamilton in RF is an excellent talent replacement.   With a quality rotation and decent bullpen (every bullpen has some issue in April), the Angels should win this division.  Their AL dominance will still remain to be seen.

Rangers

As the Angels gain Josh Hamilton, the Rangers lose him.  For the Rangers however, they might be a little glad to see him go for the price tag he commanded.  The organization seemed like it wanted to move in another direction from the challenging situation of Josh Hamilton.  It is amazing how talented he can be and yet how a relapse of his alcohol or drug use could make his multimillion dollar investment into a non-producing element.  The Rangers move forward with young talent in the OF with Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry.  As they are missing Beyond Beltre, there is an absence of a strong and consistent power bat in the lineup.  As “playing small ball” and quality pitching will be what is necessary for success, the Rangers would only be one move away to acquire available power talent and lift this team back into a serious contender.  The Rangers do have the pieces to make such a trade and with a notoriously-weak hitting first baseman in Mitch Moreland, I am sure talent will be available to acquire one, should it be needed.  In the meantime, acquisitions Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski will look to provide gap and HR power with Kinsler, Cruz and Murphy. 

Marniers

Health is the biggest issue for this club but if they can put that together, this could be a year of resurgence in Seattle. Morse, Gutierrez and Saunders provide and interesting and dynamic OF of 2013.  There is a lot of talent within that group and, if healthy, could carry this ball club into relevance.   The Mariners infield feature three more players who can truly make all the difference in Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero.  If these guys play to their ability, the Mariners will have a serious offensive team.  My hope is that Justin Smoak either plays to his potential or is sent to the minors because one can only wait so long for maturity.  My best wishes to him. 

What scares me about this team is its starting pitching.  I am not scared of its depth as I think as it grows that it will be strong.  My fear in my bold prediction is in Felix Hernandez….  (I know what you might be saying…WHAT THE &#%@?!)  Signing such a big contract will have some players rest on their laurels a tad.  I believe that King Felix will not do so and that is where the taxed arm of Felix Hernandez may become a issue.  My fear with King Felix is the one that I had with Roy Halladay and that looks to be coming true. My unfortunate prediction is that Felix Hernandez will either be shut down or have arm surgery by the end of the 2014 season.  The question is two fold:  Am I right?  and  Can he make it through?  If he is fine, I will hold my strong prediction.  If he is not, They will be moved down to fourth in the standings.

Athletics

It is not that the Athletics are bad or do not have talent.  They absolutely do.  They just irritate me.  I cannot run a baseball league like an under achieving MLB the show franchise and torment myself as a fan of the game.  I feel like the owners of the club just wants to profit and do not care about the product.  As many owners are like that in the sport, it just is so obvious in Oakland that it blows me away.   The A’s have taken a step back in their rotation and as it will prove to be decent, it could have taken a step forward in adding talent…not losing Brandon McCarthy.  I am not sold that Josh Reddick will duplicate his 2012 stats and luckily Yoenis Cespedes has such high-upside, he may be able to cover it. Adding Lowrie is helpful but to how much of an extent?  Too many questions for me to endorse this club.  Usually organization who have a strong core of talent make additions to it to build upon success, excite the fan base and look to improve.  The A’s “Moneyball” practice is more like pulling of a Valparaiso-like upset than creating an established and winning organization.

Astros

All I am going to say about this Astros is that this is a year of evaluation.  The organization does have talent within it.  The question is which talent will make itself the building blocks to the future of the organization, which ones will be traded for more puzzle pieces and which others will fall by the waste-side.  My one player to watch is Brett Wallace.  This is an athletic and strong kid who has some potential to be the first real first baseman for this club since Jeff Bagwell.  I would love to see him put on a show in the first half and get the buzz going on a player that will be in a majority of your fantasy squads by years’ end (shameless fantasy plug being notated). I would expect that good personal years from Bud Norris or Lucas Harrell should attract trade talk at the trade deadline in July.