NL East

The NL East is probably the division that my co-blogger and I can speak strongest towards. Being devout fans, for better or for worse, we know our enemies as well as our own teams. The division used to hold a simple formula for most of my childhood: All roads go through Atlanta. Then the Mets made a hiccup and thwarted the Braves’ dominance before the Phillies began their run. Then came Washington. Now Washington, Atlanta and Philadelphia will leave the Mets and Marlins behind and fight for a chance to make the postseason. Here is my most fair analysis of the division by record and opinion.

NL East

Nationals (95 Wins)

Braves (92 Wins)

Phillies (86 Wins)

Mets (74 Wins)

Marlins (66 Wins)

 

Nationals

On paper, this is the best team in baseball.  The roster balances a strong run-producing and power based lineup with solid defense behind it.  The Nationals 2013 pitching staff is down-right tough and while the posted a outstanding 3.33 ERA as a group in 2012, 2013 looks to be just as promising (if not better).   What will make the difference in Washington for them not to win as many games is found in Dan Haren and Ross Detwiler. The back end of the rotation looks strong as Haren is committed to regain his form as one of the better pitching talents in the game and Detwiler is primed for a coming out campaign.  As the Nationals #4 and #5 starters, their ability to pitch effectively and late into games, will save the bullpen so it may only have to put in significant work  2-3 days a week.  Having a fresh bullpen for most of season allows a top-tier team to shrink ball games effectively and increases the overall win total.  Haren and Detwiler’s results can make the difference between the Nationals become a 90 win team and a 100 win team.

Braves

In most divisions in baseball, the Braves are the projected division winners- except this one.  As they are a very close second and very few holes in their team, I just do not feel that with the current roster talent, the minor league talent still available to them and the ability to add payroll in the right deal, that anyone can be picked over the Nationals in April.  With that said, the pitching staff, with or without Johnny Venters is awesome.  Hudson is the veteran of a staff who boasts some serious talent.  With Brandon Beachy returning mid-season to supplement any injured starters, the Braves have the ability to make the playoffs as start 3 high end guys based on their 2013 performance.  I believe at some point this year, Mike Minor will find his stride and become the player the Braves envisioned him to be.  The OF to many is the best threesome in baseball and you won’t find much argument here. The only gripe I have with those three players together is their projected strikeout between them and as a club. Justin Upton, BJ Upton and Jason Heyward will combine for 400+ strikeouts over a full season.  If you add Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman to the mix, that number jumps around 650 strikeouts between 5 of their starting players.  If 30+ HRs are coming from all these players then perhaps this is a non-issue but with the Braves not having a real lead-off hitter, I think a different approach may be necessary. I feel the Braves would be better off with players like the Upton brothers shooting the gaps in Atlanta and using their tools to not only be run producers in Turner Field but table setters for the hitters behind them.  This approach could reduce 30-40 strikeouts from each of them and give the Braves a better chance to catch the Nationals for the division and long term success.

Phillies

The Phillies have a rotation, power bats, some speed and experience.  They also have some age, some injury-prone players, a questionable bull pen and Michael Young playing third base.  This may be the last hurrah for the current Phillies team before a rebuilding process begins unless a summer spark can light Citizen’s Bank. There still is power potential and talent on this team.  The OF is blended with a defensive speedster in Ben Revere and two powerful corner outfielders in Brown and Mayberry, to which if they put a full season together can hit 50+ HRs combined.  Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have proven in the past to be lethal but they must capture lighting (and the fountain of youth) in a bottle.  With this team, there is no real key other than performance.  The talent is there in the pitching staff but I do not believe Roy Halladay is going to regain most of his ability to shut down lineups.  If he does not pitch to a decent level, the Phillies won’t be able to chase down the two superior teams in the division

 

Mets

My next blog entry will address the Orange and Blue.

Marlins

A rebuilding year for sure.  The fire sale left only Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco as their pieces of established talent.  This is going to be a long year of scrappy baseball for this team and I am sure that Marlins fans will stop showing up starting….today-  Opening Day Monday.