The Atlanta Braves in 2013

Each of the past two seasons – along with many other seasons in Atlanta – have ended in post-season-related disappointment.  In 2011 they failed to make the playoffs on the last day of the regular season, and last year they lost the inaugural play-in Wild Card game against the Cardinals.  This is a team that has had only two losing seasons in the last 21 years, but has experienced post-season disappointment in all but one season.  Will 2013 be the year they turn that luck around, and possibly contend for the elusive World Series title?  Let’s break down the team by position

Outfield

This was the talk of the off-season.  The Braves signed the high-priced free agent B.J. Upton, and traded with the Diamondbacks for his little brother, Justin.  With Jason Heyward, this gives the Braves one of the youngest and most dynamic outfields in all of baseball.  All three have plus-speed and plus-power, and they are all top-tier defenders.  Both Heyward and Justin can hit in the high-200’s, but all three strike out way too much.  For Heyward this is a little surprising, because his plate discipline was one of his strengths coming out of the minors, as described by scouts.  After a successful rookie campaign he had a disastrous 2011, due to his inability to make adjustments to pitchers that were adjusting to him.  He responded in 2012 with another successful year, showing his rookie season was not a fluke and that he possesses the ability to make changes.  Last year he doubled his stolen base total from 2010 and believe me, that was no fluke – this guy has wheels.  As he grows and matures as a player, you will see more of this from him.  I predict a few more this year, somewhere between 25-30 as long as he stays healthy.  If the three of these guys can reel in their strikeout totals just a little bit, it will make all the difference.  Out of the three, Heyward seems most likely to be able to do so.  But all three contribute in so many other ways that the team will succeed despite the K’s.

Infield

The team’s weakest position is going to be third base.  With the departure of Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson will platoon the position.  Johnson will get the start against right-handers, Francisco against left-handers (Johnson’s career splits are backwards and far apart).  Both are having good Springs, and Francisco performed admirably in 2012, hitting 9 homers off the bench.  This time last year Tyler Pastornicky was the opening day starting shortstop as Simmons was deemed not yet ready for the Majors.  As it turned out, it ended up being the other way around.  By the end of May Pastornicky was hitting .248, sent back to AAA Gwinnett, and replaced by this year’s opening day starter, Andrelton Simmons.  By the end of the first week in July when he broke his finger he was hitting .296 with 13 runs scored while hitting at the bottom of the lineup.  When he returned to action two months later he picked up right where he left off, and finished the season with a .289 batting average.  This year he will be the leadoff man, where the team will be able to utilize his speed more.  He only stole one base last year, but as he grows more confident in the art, he will have more opportunities – after all, he did steal 26 bases in 2011 at the minor league level.  If he can maintain his good on-base percentage, the five big bats after him have the ability to drive him home.  For the first time in five years Dan Uggla failed to hit at least 30 home runs, and he saw his slugging percentage drop off the face of the planet.  His batting average was also about 30-35 points off what it was during his more productive years in Florida (Miami), and he saw an increase in strikeouts.  He did, however, have a career-high in walks, so he is learning to be more patient.  While I don’t see much of an increase in batting average, I do believe he will find his power again.  With a little pressure taken off with the acquisitions of the Upton brothers, I think his home run total will be back up around 30 this year.  Lastly, there’s Freddie Freeman at first base.  Last year his batting average dropped, but that should bounce back this year as he has always hit in the high-200’s.  He’s an excellent gap hitter, and was 7th in doubles in the National League among first basemen.  I believe he will hit in the neighborhood of .290 with 25 homers and 100 RBI while hitting in the middle of the lineup.

Catcher

It is my belief that this will be Brian McCann’s last year in an Atlanta uniform.  The Braves have two prospects at the position waiting, one of which -Evan Gattis – will be on this year’s opening day roster.  Christian Bethancourt is thought to have more upside, but he still needs at least another year in the minors (this will be his first season at the AAA level).  Gattis surprised many with his outstanding Spring performance, hitting .368 with six homers.  With McCann starting the season on the DL, Gattis will back up new acquisition Gerald Laird.  Laird doesn’t possess the power that McCann and Gattis do, but his veteran presence will help this young pitching staff in Brian’s absence, as well as mentor Gattis along the way.  McCann is scheduled to return to Atlanta at the beginning of May, at which point Gattis will likely be sent down to triple-A.  McCann’s health has been a constant concern over the last two years, and that – along with his age at a grueling position – is why the Braves will not pay him the money he will command in free agency at the end of the season.  Despite his declining batting average he still hits home runs in the mid-20’s, but taking into consideration he will miss a month while recovering from shoulder surgery and possibly more injuries during the season, I would peg him for around 15 dingers.  In 2014 he will be a DH and backup catcher for an American League team.

Pitching

This off-season the Braves shed the likes of two injury-prone, declining pitchers – Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens.  Normally one would think if a team got rid of it’s #2 and #3 pitchers they would be in bad shape, but this is a classic case of addition by subtraction.  Jurrjens hadn’t had  a healthy season since 2009, Hanson since his sophomore season in 2010.  When both pitchers were able to fulfill their duties in 2012, they were very ineffective.  This year the rotation features a lot of young – but proven – talent anchored by veteran Tim Hudson.  Hudson will be turning 38 this summer and is entering his 14th major league season, yet has shown no signs of slowing down.  He does not rely on power pitching, instead pitching to contact, so it is feasible he can continue doing this for another year or two.  He hasn’t finished a season with an ERA above 4 in six consecutive seasons, and he has been as reliable as one can be since undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Kris Medlen will look to build on his uber-successful 2012, which saw him post a 10-1 record with a 1.57 ERA.  These numbers will not be replicated, but the kid has serious talent.  He will be a 17-game winner with an ERA around 3.50.  Mike Minor has a much lower ceiling than Medlen, but he is still dependable.  In his second full season as a starter he will win around 12 games with an ERA in the mid-4’s.  Paul Maholm returns for his first full season after being traded at the deadline from the Cubs.  He’s another guy that has rarely been injured in his career, and has remained fairly consistent with his output from year to year.  Julio Teheran is my guy to watch this year.  Two years ago he was the #1 prospect in the organization, but he tweaked his delivery last year and relied much too heavily on his fastball, and the results were not good.  At the end of last season he went back to his old delivery and perfected his two-seamer and slider, and the numbers he has put up since are on-par with what all the hype around him was saying two years ago.  If his winter league and spring training starts translate into the regular season, this is a potential Rookie Of The Year candidate.  It’s hard to predict a rookie’s numbers, but I’d say something in the neighborbood of a mid-3 ERA, 15 wins, and 180 strikeouts is attainable for Teheran.  The name left off this list is Brandon Beachy, who will return from Tommy John surgery shortly after the All-Star break.  What he will bring to the table after having such a surgery is unknowable.  The rotation becomes crowded with his return, and if Teheran produces as I think he will, I’m actually pretty curious how Fredi Gonzalez handles this.  If it were me I would keep Beachy in the bullpen for the rest of the season, allowing him to work back into action slowly, then release Maholm in the off-season and have Beachy start 2014 in the rotation.  Time will tell.

Bullpen

The bullpen has already received bad news for the 2013 season.  Johnny Venters is scheduled to meet with Dr. Andrews on Wednesday, which likely means only one thing – an announcement of Tommy John surgery will soon follow.  Venters has pitched more innings in the last three years than any other reliever in baseball, and now the Braves are paying the price.  Luckily this was a position of strength for the team, and the Braves still have lefty specialist Eric O’Flaherty to take his place.  Furthermore, the acquisition of Jordan Walden in the off-season makes the potential loss of Venters a little easier to take.  Craig Kimbrel will return as the closer, and attempt the impossible task of matching his historic season from a year ago, in which he saved 42 games with a 1.01 ERA and and 116 strikeouts in just 62.2 innings of work.  The guy put up as many strikeouts as some starters throughout the course of the season.  Kimbrel obviously won’t match that ERA, but the strikeout and saves totals are not out of the question.  I’ll say the numbers come down a little bit, but he’ll still be around 100 K’s and an ERA in the mid-2’s.

The Braves biggest weakness is their depth.  If anybody gets hurt at any position other than third, they may be in trouble.  Eric Hinske and Martin Prado are no longer on the roster, so the bench and utility talent is a little thin.  Reed Johnson, Paul Janish, Ramiro Pena, and Jordan Schafer are their best bench options, so things could get sketchy if any significant injuries are sustained.  But these things can not be predicted, so assuming good health this team will finish second in the division, win the Wild Card game against the Giants, and advance to the NLCS against the Nationals.  Now let’s get the season started!